Premier League Tips

With the EFL Cup already in the cabinet, focus now turns from the Europa League to the FA Cup with a home tie with Fulham standing between them and a Wembley semi-final.

United's home comforts

Given United are unbeaten at home since early September, it looks a decent draw for the Red Devils.

How their bid for three trophies fares will have much to do with how Erik ten Hag juggles his squad over the next couple of months.

The Dutchman also has another target - securing Champions League football next season - and the most likely way of achieving that currently is via a top-four Premier League finish.

So, for now, every game matters.

Ten Hag will also have to consider the international break which comes up immediately after this fixture.

How much, if at all, can he take into account the amount of football his stars will be playing over the next 10 days for their countries?

In terms of his team selection here, we do at least know that he's treated this competition with respect in his first season in English football and while changes look sure to be made given this game comes less than 72 hours after a Europa game in Seville, they probably won't be widespread.

One we know of is that Casemiro will need replacing in midfield as he begins a domestic suspension.

Key man back for Fulham

That's decent news for Fulham, who themselves welcome back Joao Palhinha from his own ban.

In his absence, Fulham lost both games - 3-0 at home to Arsenal and 3-2 away to Brentford - with the Portuguese's all-action midfield displays badly missed.

He will be needed - Fulham have lost all eight games they've played against the Premier League's current top five. Throw in a dreadful record in this fixture (see below) and it's hard to make too much of a case for them to win in 90 minutes at 8.07/1.

United are 1.4640/85 in that market and while they look worthy odds-on favourites given their strength at home - they've now won 18 of their last 20 Old Trafford games - there looks a better way of backing them.

There have been plenty of goals at Old Trafford this season with over 2.5 landing in 69% of their Premier League games. As for Fulham, 67% of their league matches have landed this too.

BTTS offers added value

A United win with over 2.5 goals takes the price up to evens but the bet I like the look of is for a home victory with both teams scoring.

Statistically, the season so far offers great hope to backers of this bet.

Even in victory, United have struggled to keep the better teams out on home turf.

They've won five games at Old Trafford against the current top 12 and four of those have also seen the opposition find the net.

Fulham's data is also strong. They've lost six away games in the league but they've scored in five of them.

United also won the sides' only previous meeting this season via this method - 2-1 at Craven Cottage.

Adding both teams to score raises the price about a United win to 3.211/5 which looks worth a small wager.

Back Man Utd to win and both teams to score @

3.2

Free Bet Builder

It's always worth a look at the sub-markets too, especially with Betfair offering customers a free £2 Bet Builder on any Premier League or FA Cup game this weekend.

It would be wrong not to mention Marcus Rashford, whose red-hot form has now seen him score in 17 of his 24 appearances since the World Cup. He's even money to find the net again in this contest.

That option looks sure to make plenty of Bet Builders but my preference would be to focus on the fouls markets.

Both sides are in the Premier League's top eight for fouls committed - and the top four for cards received - so they could keep ref Chris Kavanagh busy.

While some of the obvious foul candidates such as Palhinha and Fred are understandably very short prices, there are three players who do look a spot of value for 1+ foul.

For Fulham, Antonee Robinson has conceded a foul in six of his last seven appearances at left-back and could be going up against the awkward Antony or Jadon Sancho in this one.

As for United, centre-forward Wout Weghorst is now on a run of having committed a foul in his last eight games.

1280 Wout Weghorst Man Utd 2023 Europa League.jpg

Meanwhile, Lisandro Martinez has delivered on the 1+ foul bet in six of his last seven and the famously short centre-back will surely be targeted by the physical beast that is Aleksandar Mitrovic here.

Put the three together and you get a price around the 23/10 mark.

Back Martinez, Weghorst & Robinson 1+ foul each @

3.33

Of course, the problem we have is not really knowing who is going to play so if you are backing this suggestion, check the team news before kick-off - you don't really want to be letting the bet run if one of the players is named on the bench.

Cashing out and replacing the bet using starters only is the more sensible ploy.

Opta fact

Fulham are winless in their last 15 meetings with Manchester United in all competitions (D3 L12), while they've only won one of their last 25 away games against the Red Devils (3-1 in October 2003).

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