Man City v Southampton: Back the cards to flow in FA Cup semi-final at 8/11 and 9/2

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History points to City

This will be Manchester City's eighth consecutive FA Cup semi-final beginning back in the 2018/19 season. They have been victorious in their last three and are looking to become the first side to reach the FA Cup final four seasons in a row.

Southampton are attempting to be the first non-Premier League side in the FA Cup final for 18 years, when Championship side Cardiff City played Portsmouth in the 2007/08 showpiece. If history is anything to go by, it will be difficult - the last 15 times a top-flight team has faced a side outside of the top division it's been the top-flight team that's progressed. Sunderland upsetting Norwich City in 1991/92 were the last team to cause such an upset.

Southampton are just 7/18.00 to qualify here and let's remember this is Pep Guardiola and Manchester City - one of the greatest managers and sides in history.

Man City come into this in good form having won 13 of their last 16 domestic matches to ascend to top spot in the Premier League. There is a slight train of thought that perhaps the schedule could catch up with them with this being their third game in just seven days. However, it's a similar story for Southampton who are fighting for promotion as this will their third game in just eight days.

The Saints are in tremendous form having won 16 of their last 20 games, including beating all of Arsenal, Fulham and soon-to-be Premier League Coventry. This won't be a walk in the park for City at 1/51.20. In their two meetings last season City only managed to score one goal as they won 1-0 at the Etihad but drew 0-0 at St Mary's.

Goals at Wembley?

Whenever Man City are involved goals are usually prohibitively priced and Over 2.5 is just 4/111.36. Given it's a semi-final, a big Wembley pitch and Southampton's good form, I wouldn't want to back City to do most of the heavy lifting to see three or more goals but it's also a dangerous game opposing goals whenever they are involved.

Speaking of goals, Erling Haaland has 12 goals in 12 FA Cup games for Man City, however, he's only scored in four of those games, with three hat-tricks. He's just 2/51.40 to score and 1/41.25 to score or assist here but be wary.

In 14 semi-finals or final across all competitions in his Man City career, he's never scored nor assisted a single goal. He's been restricted to just 25 shots, 1.79 per-game, well below his Premier League season average of 3.60 per-game.

Best bet

So with the expectation that this might not be as easy as the 1/51.20 on Man City suggests but at the same time not wanting to oppose one of the best teams ever, I think the bet here is to back cards, with the line set at just 2.5 despite such a high-profile event.

Some may think it's unfortunate that Craig Pawson is the referee here given he averages the lowest cards per-game in the Premier League this season. Across his 18 appearances he's shown 46 cards at an average of 2.56 per-game. However, he's come alive in cup competitions. In his four domestic cup matches he's shown 18 cards at an average of 4.50 per-game. He's refereed Man City twice in the league and has shown them five cards so this doesn't have to all be about Southampton.

Against Premier League opposition for Southampton in this cup run, there were three cards versus Arsenal and five cards versus Fulham. In City's four FA Cup games the opposition have picked up eight cards (2.0 per-game), and that includes games versus Exeter and Salford City. So along with the occasion of a Wembley semi-final, that average figure can easily increase and win the bet by itself.

Both sides have dangerous players that can draw fouls. For Man City, Jeremy Doku is the fifth most fouled player per-game in the Premier League, and for Southampton, Leo Scienza is the most fouled player per-game in the Championship.

We can back three or more cards at 8/111.73 and incase things escalate, I think backing Over 4.5 cards at 9/25.50 makes sense too. Pawson has shown five or more cards in two of his four domestic cup matches this season.

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