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Expect Championship side to cut loose
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Ipswich averaging 2.05 goals per 90 across their last 74 league games
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Maidstone missing home comforts of 3G pitch
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Ipswich v Maidstone United
Saturday January 27, 12:45
Live on BBC1
Maidstone United head to Ipswich Town, on the hunt for a giant-killing. If successful, it would be up there with one of the greatest shocks in FA Cup history.
Managed by former Wolves man George Elokobi, the National League South side are the lowest-ranked team left in the competition. If you believe in the dream factory then you can get 25.024/1 for your money on a Maidstone win at Portman Road.
Such dizzy heights of the FA Cup fourth round would have been an impossible dream for a club that went out of business in 1992 and had to regroup in the Kent County League Fourth Division. It has been a steady climb back. Promotion was finally secured back to the National League in 2016. Last season's relegation back to the sixth tier has somewhat disrupted that trajectory but the club have stuck with the inspirational figure of Elokobi and have struck gold in this competition.
With Ipswich running hot in the Championship, this is where the Maidstone story is likely to end. Yet, this is the FA Cup. The old girl does still have her moments. But this is surely a step too far?
Ruthless Tractor Boys can dish out hammering
Excuse me for being the buzz kill, but this is a betting-based preview after all and we must go hunting money making opportunities rather than following our heart, which is yearning for a mighty shock conjured up by the non-league side. I'd love to ramble here and make a case for the away win but such is Maidstone's reliance on their home form, it's almost certain that they'll get swallowed up against such elite opposition.
Maidstone were able to beat league outfits Barrow and Stevenage at the Gallagher Stadium to set up this fourth-round foray.
It's a unique place for teams to go owing to the 3G surface. Teams do struggle to adapt to that type of underfoot conditions and Maidstone's players have a slight edge in their familiarity with the synthetics. A look at their home form this season across all competitions does put weight on that argument having lost just two of their 15 home matches this season, both by a 1-0 scoreline.
In fact, across those games, they've conceded just nine goals.
That's promotion winning form yet away from home they've taken 20 points from their 16 matches in the National League South - that's mid-table form - and only four other teams have shipped more goals on the road.
And here, they face a team that have scored 152 goals in their last 74 league matches - that's 2.05 goals per 90 minutes over a huge sample size.
Kieran McKenna has built a collective unit that strangles the opposition with possession then creates high probability chances through intelligent patterns of play. It's likely this level of football is going to make most of the Maidstone players' head spin - they won't have faced football of this standard before.
McKenna has no midweek Championship game to contend with so in order to keep the momentum from their vitally important 1-1 draw with Leicester on Monday, he's likely to pick a strong team - like he has done in the past in cup competitions.
Ipswich have made a habit of pummelling teams at Portman Road under McKenna with 23 of their last 26 home games seeing the tasty Tractor Boys score two or more goals. I'd be confident of this one going the same way.
My angle in is to bank on Ipswich cutting loose by backing them on the -3 Asian Handicap line on the Exchange at anything bigger than 2.56/4 when the market becomes more liquid.
This means that if Ipswich win by four or more goals we get a full return and our stakes our returned if they win by three goals. If they lose, draw or win by two or fewer goals then it's a loser.
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