FA Cup Tips: Play it cool at Rodney Parade with a Sunday second round shock

• Three televised games across Saturday and Sunday for League One teams

• Alan Dudman is looking for a cup upset at Rodney Parade

• Our third tier man looks at Forest Green, Derby and Fleetwood in the FA Cup second round

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Back a 6/1 shock with lowest-ranked team left in the competition

Forest Green Rovers v Alvechurch
Saturday 26th November, kick-off 15:00
Live on BBC One and BBC iPlayer

While the World Cup is hitting its straps, the FA Cup moves into the second round this weekend with three League One teams on terrestrial TV, although the decision to have a Forest Green match is perhaps far less glamorous than one would have hoped for as they have struggled badly in the third tier this term. The glamour here almost certainly lies with Alvechurch, who have lit up the tournament with a stellar run that saw them dump Forest Green's rivals Cheltenham in the first round.

Rovers are rock-bottom with just 14 points from 19 games so far in League One, and a price of 4/11 on the Sportsbook could be ripe for layers to have a go.

Non-league opposition presents a difficult challenge, and Alvechurch's Southern League Premier Division Central form makes them far from an appealing bet as they lie just above the drop zone in a league that contains the likes of Rushden, Tamworth and Nuneaton. However, we saw with Torquay against Derby in the first round (well the first game anyway) how their league form went out of the window so to speak.

Alechurch striker Danny Waldron scored both goals against Cheltenham in the first round 2-1 victory (Alvechurch's fifth FA Cup tie) and he could be worth following in the scoring markets, be it first or anytime as he has 12 in 20. His first goal was a fine finish shifting feet to his left, while his second was more of a poacher's goal as he was first to react in the box. He could have had a third had he not been denied by the post - commentated on rather well on ITV by my good pal Dan Roebuck.

Aurio Neto Teixeira looked a good player in the '4' position for Alvechurch from what I could see on the highlights.

Rovers don't score many at home, and five from their nine games is a pitiful return and have failed to find the net in three of their last four matches at New Lawn, and the other being a solitary goal. The Under 2.5 Goals can be backed on the Sportsbook at 17/10 with the Under 1.5 Goals at a massive 5/1.

I will shun the HT/FT market again as the instant reaction to turn to that is too easy an option for a 4/11 or heavy odds-on shot, and it's a bet I tried with Portsmouth in the first round, and I am happy to leave that alone.

With Forest Green's manager Ian Burchnall under pressure, he has failed to get anywhere near the levels that Rob Edwards achieved, so it might be worth going in with a lay here on the hosts, or a straight 6/1 back of the outsiders. Cheltenham manager Wade Elliott said his young team failed to deal with the pressure of being favourites against Alvechurch in the first round, despite the near 100 league placings between them.

Rovers haven't won in seven and have been without a number of players through injury - Jordan Moore-Taylor, David Davis, Reece Brown, Udoka Godwin-Malife, Ben Stevenson, Matty Stevens and Armani Little have all been on the sidelines.

The hosts can overdo it with the short passes in their own half, and that was Cheltenham's downfall, ergo we can go BTTS too here.

If you are seeking a Bet Builder, Waldron looks an option to include but at the time of writing, prices were not available so there could be a further update before Saturday here.

Brown's draw specialists could be frustrated by the Fleet

Ebbsfleet United v Fleetwood Town
Sunday 27th November, kick-off 12:30
Live on ITV1 and STV

A far more interesting market for Sunday's ITV game at the Stonebridge Road/Kuflink Stadium with a bit of a Fleet derby here with The Fleet against the Cod Army, and the visitors from League One can be backed at odds-against at 5/4 on the Sportsbook.

Ebbsfleet's form in the National League South has been impeccable as the leaders, and a fine home record seven wins from their nine games so far makes this no gimme for the favs.

Christian N'Guessan has returned to fitness for the non-league team to boost their midfield, and the player is well aware of the hype into Sunday by saying: "We're excited to be on television. I've never played on TV before, I'm sure some of other lads have, but once I'm on the pitch I don't think I'll really notice what's going on around me." Perhaps the players have had this in mind as they have lost back-to-back matches.

Dennis Kutrieb was appointed Ebbsfleet manager in 2020 from Tennis Borussia Berlin but failed to win promotion last term, but he has some decent players at his disposal. Chris Solly played over 300 games for Charlton, Franklin Domi is an attacking defender and Dom Poleon is another with a lot of League One experience and goals.

Fleetwood were 3-1 home winners in the FA Cup First Round against Oxford City and are fairly resolute but do carry a threat with Shaun Rooney who recently scored both goals in the dramatic and bad tempered 2-2 at Bristol Rovers. Paddy Lane got two in the Oxford City match and he's a decent 3/1 To Score Anytime on the Sportsbook.

The game could be similar to that first round, as City pressed Fleetwood high up the pitch and Fleetwood at times looked a bit sloppy under pressure, but the moments of quality with the goals was too much for their non-league opponents.

With Fleetwood's knack of drawing matches this term - five at home and five away, that's one way to play this and backing the draw with a close first-half gives the opportunity to trade out in-running. The Cod Army also have five 1-1s this term, and I am tempted too to play the Correct Score there. Fleetwood's xg numbers for and against at 1.40 and 1.48 lead me to that bet.

Will the run of games catch up with Warne's Derby?

Newport County v Derby County
Sunday 27th November, kick-off 15:15
Live on ITV1 and STV

What a few weeks for Derby County. A 2-2 FA Cup draw at Torquay at the start of the month - a 0-5 replay win and a 0-0 against Liverpool in the Carabao - a match that passed me by. They won at MK Dons 1-3 and last week were 0-0 specialists in the draw played out in front of the Sky cameras - and a winning draw pick for the League One column.

Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Haydon Roberts missed last week's stalemate due to injuries, and Mendez-Laing is a real fans' favourite with his pace. Roberts also chimed in with his first goal at MK Dons from left-back, so their participation or non-participation is a worry.

Paul Warne faces opposite number Graham Coughlan in the dugout, and Coughlan had started life well since taking over at Rodney Parade back in October with a couple of wins, but they are still towards the root of the League Two table and have been hard to beat at home of late. Coughlan has challenged his players to join his '10k club' by running that distance during games - and has called for more running. Running, running an running. Hardly the school of science.

"Only one player got in that club in the game at Crawley before I took over," he said. "I think last week we had five players in, so we're growing each week."

I'd like to think Derby's quality should come to the fore here; with a front two (if they start) of David McGoldrick and James Collins, but the Rams have had a brutal run of fixtures and with the Torquay replay - it was their fifth in 12 days, and whatever the quality, that is far too much of a workload. Warne did rest players, and team news will be crucial here.

I am going low on the goals front, as Newport's recent home matches W2-0, L1-2, W2-0, W1-0 and L0-1, so we can look to the Under 1.5 Goals to take us up to half-time, and Newport's plan will be to harry and close down as much as possible. We can get 4/5 on the Sportsbook for the Under 2.5 Goals, and I would also be tempted for the 1-1 and 0-0.

However, the cuter play is a market I like - the Both To Score 'No', and this could be a potential upset as Derby have had a gruelling run of fixtures, and we can use that in potential Bet Builders. The BTTS 'No' and Under 2.5 double pays 2.1411/10, while the Draw at HT on the Sportsbook pays odds-against at 11/10.