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This time of year is perfect for football trading
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Track FA Cup team news to make decisive moves
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Profit when managers rest players as fixtures pile up
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Man Utd v Reading is prime opportunity for punters
Betfair trading is all about knowing where the odds are heading, so how can we do that in Football?
Do you have a favourite team? Do you know who your best player is? And what would happen to the chances of your team if they weren't playing?
If you can answer yes to some of those questions, you'll likely be able to make money, especially this weekend when the FA Cup returns with the fourth round.
Better than that, we will do this before a ball has been kicked.
Team news is vital
Team news is one of the critical things that affects a team's starting odds.
If your star player is injured or the manager thinks it's sensible to rest them in the next match, the odds will adjust accordingly.
You can earn a decent profit by backing or laying ahead of this news and cashing out before kick-off.
Injuries shape long and short term positions
If you're watching one game, and you see an injury to a key player, it will undoubtedly affect the current match.
But you could take advantage of that by looking at the odds on the next match and taking a position based on what has just happened.
If that player is rested in the next match or is unable to play, then the odds will eventually move to reflect this.
So keep an eye on those substitutions, primarily enforced ones.
New Year brings opportunities
The best opportunities for football traders come when we enter the new year.
The big teams join the FA Cup, the League Cup continues, the return of European competition is just around the corner, and the Premier League hots up at both ends of the table.
That creates a big problem regarding the number of fixtures to be played. And as a consequence, it's common to expect several players to be rested.
If a team rests players, you can lay them and expect the price to drift as the news begins to filter through to the market.
At first, this adjustment in odds will be gradual, but it will accelerate when the team sheet is released an hour before kick-off.
FA Cup is magic for punters
Cup matches are perfect if you want to find opportunities for this strategy.
The prize money and prestige for a domestic cup match are much less appealing than in a Premier League or European competition.
Managers often rest players, saving them for more important games. If you look at a fixture list ahead of time, you can see where all of those matches are starting to pile up.
One of the best examples came when Liverpool played Everton in the FA Cup in 2020.
Liverpool had several injuries and this, coupled with several key matches coming up in the Champions League, clearly needed to rest some players. Therefore their price drifted.
When the teamsheet was announced, there were many youth team players in the team as well, so the price drifted even further. So it was a double bubble situation, and you got the opportunity to profit a couple of times over, at least.
On the flip side when Swindon met Man City last year, Pep Guardiola surprised everybody and fielded a full-strength team sending their odds from 1.251/4 to 1.051/20 before a ball had been kicked.
Swindon on the other hand drifted from 12's to 90's on the news.
Man Utd v Reading is one to watch
If you want to profit from this betting method, look at the fixture list, watch it like a hawk. Understand where there are key pinch points, where matches are likely to occur, where players could be rested, and you'll be able to take advantage.
Ideally, for cup matches, you need a Premier League team playing a lower league team with some critical games around the corner.
The top flight team will likely field a weaker starting 11 and may surprise you with a much weaker team or some backup players on the bench. Either way, the odds will get re-priced.
Considering this weekend's FA Cup matches, Manchester United has a heavily congested fixture list. On Wednesday, they fielded a strong team against Nottingham Forest. So the game against Reading on Saturday looks like a prime candidate to rest a few players.
It's a clever way of profiting from football. It's something that I've done for many, many years successfully. It's a relatively low-risk strategy, and it's something that I recommend you have a look at this weekend.