FA Cup Opta Stats: Best bets for all eight Sunday third round ties

• Tips for every FA Cup third round tie on Sunday

• Leeds and Arsenal to show their Premier League class

• Struggling Hammers could be set for another early exit

• Much-needed win for United with Cunha on the scoresheet?

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Derby v Leeds: Back Premier League side to show their class

Derby v Leeds
Sunday, 12:00
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

Derby County have lost six of their last eight matches against Leeds in all competitions (W1 D1), losing the last three in a row. Leeds have progressed from each of their last four FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division, having been eliminated in seven of their previous nine ties against lower tier opponents beforehand.

The Bet:

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Portsmouth v Arsenal: Back Gunners to win with ease

Portsmouth v Arsenal
Sunday, 14:00
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

Portsmouth have lost their last three FA Cup third round ties, and their last five FA Cup ties against Premier League opposition since beating Tottenham Hotspur in the 2009-10 semi-final. Arsenal have progressed from all four of their FA Cup ties against Portsmouth, in 1931-32, 1970-71, 2003-04 and 2019-20.

The Bet:

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Hull v Blackburn: Back Rovers' impressive away form to continue

Hull v Blackburn
Sunday, 14:30
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

Five of the last seven meetings between Hull and Blackburn have been won by the away side (D1 L1), all in the Championship. The first game between the sides this season was won 3-0 by Blackburn at the MKM Stadium.

The Bet:

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Norwich v Walsall: Back an 8/19.00 stat-based Bet Builder

Norwich v Walsall
Sunday, 14:30
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

Walsall have won seven of their last nine away matches in the FA Cup (D1 L1), winning both games this season on the road at non-league sides Eastleigh and Gateshead. Daniel Kanu has scored in the first and second round for Walsall in this season's FA Cup. The last Saddlers player to net in the first, second and third rounds in a season was Andy Cook in 2018-19.

The Bet:

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Sheff United v Mansfield: Back Blades to continue good form against lesser lights

Sheff United v Mansfield
Sunday, 14:30
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

Sheffield United have progressed from 19 of their last 20 FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division than them, with the exception being a 1-0 loss to non-league Barnet in the 2018-19 third round. Mansfield Town have been eliminated from 10 of their last 11 FA Cup third round ties, with the exception being a 2-1 win at Brighton in 2007-08.

The Bet:

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Swansea v West Brom: Back Swans to heap more misery on Baggies

Swansea v West Brom
Sunday, 14:30
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

West Brom have won just one of their last 11 away games against Swansea in all competitions (D2 L8) and have already lost there in the league this season on New Year's Day.  West Bromwich Albion have lost their last two FA Cup away games by an aggregate score of 8-1. They last lost more consecutively on the road between January 1996 and January 2001 (6).

The Bet:

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West Ham v QPR: Back under pressure Nuno to suffer another setback

West Ham v QPR
Sunday, 14:30
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

QPR have progressed from their last three FA Cup ties against West Ham, most recently a 1-0 fourth round victory in 1994-95 under Ray Wilkins. Having progressed from six consecutive FA Cup third round ties between 2017-18 and 2022-23, West Ham have gone out at this stage of the competition in each of the last two seasons.

The Bet:

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Man United v Brighton: Back Cunha to lead Red Devils to victory

Man United v Brighton
Sunday, 16:30
Live on TNT Sports & discovery+

The Opta Stat:

Manchester United have faced Brighton in six previous FA Cup ties and have been victorious in all six, most recently in the 2022-23 semi-final, winning 7-6 on penalties after a 0-0 draw. Manchester United's Matheus Cunha has scored in each of his last four FA Cup appearances, all for Wolves between January 2024 and March 2025.

The Bet:

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