Derby v Leeds: Opta stats and three best bets for Sunday's FA Cup tie

• Leeds United must bounce back after end of good run

• Derby have lost last four FA cup ties against The Whites

• Brenden Aaronson one to watch

• Safe Sub is here for the 2025-26 season - read all about it!

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Derby County v Leeds United

Sunday 11th Jan 
KO: 12:00
Live on TNT Sports 2

To kick off their 2025/2026 FA cup campaign, Leeds United will face Derby County at Pride Park on Sunday. The Whites are the favourites on the Betfair Sportsbook at 8/111.73 with the Championship side 15/44.75.

Those prices are no surprise considering the previous occasions that the teams have met - the Rams have lost six of their last eight matches against Leeds in all competitions (W1 D1), losing the last three in a row. Leeds have progressed from each of their last four FA cup ties against Derby, knocking them out in 1967-68, 1972-73, 1974-75 and 1981-82. 

Following a strenuous couple of weeks in the Premier League, Daniel Farke is expected to rotate his squad. Key players, such Joe Rodon and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are expected to be kept off the pitch ahead of their next Premier League game so it will be interesting to see who Farke plays in this fixture.

The Whites have progressed from each of their last four FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division but were eliminated in seven of the previous nine ties against lower tier opponents beforehand. 

Below are three Opta stats and corresponding tips for the match.

Bet #1- Back Leeds to Win

The Stat

Leeds United have lost just one of their last eight Premier League matches (W2 D5 L1) so are in good form across competitions. They have also won on six of the last eight occasions when facing The Rams. 

The Bet

Bet #2- Consider Brenden Aaronson for anytime scorer

The Stat

Brenden Aaronson has been on good form in recent matches, scoring twice for Leeds in Wednesday's Premier League game against Newcastle and four times so far this season. He is the second highest goalscorer for the Whites this season (tied with Lukas Nmecha), beaten only by Calvert-Lewin (9 goals). At odds of 16/54.20, this midfielder could be one to watch on Sunday. 

The Bet

Bet #3 - Back over 2.5 goals

The Stat

In the Championship, the Rams score exactly one goal 71% of the time and, on average, concede 1.43 goals when playing at Pride Park. Putting these two stats together, backing over 2.5 goals at 1/12.00 would follow the stats across competitions.

The Bet

Now read more football tips for this weekend's fixtures