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Hot favourites very trustworthy at this stage of FA Cup
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Leicester may have eyes elsewhere
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Gusto the value call to register an assist
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Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here
Chelsea v Leicester
Sunday March 17, 12:45
Live on BBC1
Is it time to start trusting Chelsea? The signs are positive, especially in forward areas over the last month.
In their last eight Premier League games, Chelsea have scored 2.1 goals per game, overperforming their expected goals by 0.47 per game, which is a complete flip to the period between August and January where they regularly underperformed their xG in front of goal. It's starting to click for Maurico Pochettino and they could be in line to make another major cup final with this fixture looking particularly kind.
Is this a game Leicester really need? They are wobbling slightly in the Championship, winning just one of their last five and conceding two goals in four of those matches.
Chelsea are 2/51.40 with the Betfair Sportsbook to win in 90 minutes and considering shocks are rarely seen at this stage in modern-day FA Cup football, a home win in 90 minutes should prove nice starting point for anyone building a bet.
In the last 26 games involving Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal, Liverpool or Chelsea in the fifth round or quarter finals, those teams have won 24 of those 26 games in 90 minutes. And those two defeats both were inflicted by Leicester who were a top five club at the time and won the trophy in 2021.
Hot favourites usually do the business at this stage. Chelsea look rock solid.
Gusto becoming Chelsea's key creative force
For all the criticism Chelsea have faced in the transfer market, one of the shrewdest bits of business in the summer was to get Malo Gusto for just £26m.
To be a top-class full-back in the modern day you need to be a creative force and contribute in the final third - and Gusto is providing that. The biggest compliment you can give to him is that no-one is talking about Chelsea missing Reece James, who on his day is arguably one of the best right backs in the world.
Gusto from right back is acting as the playmaker in this Chelsea side - like Trent Alexander-Arnold does at Liverpool. Maurico Pochettino looks to have finally found a bit of consistency in terms of their attacking phases of play with Gusto at the heart of the attacks.
In the last month Gusto averaging 93 touches per 90 minutes in the Premier League - that's the 15th highest of any player in the league during that timeframe. No Chelsea player is having more touches of the ball across the pitch and in the final third with Gusto's averaging 19 touches per 90 in that area of the pitch.
That showcases the licence he's being given in a system which is skewed towards attacking down the right side, which can be seen through their direction of play stats. Over their past four games, 44 per cent of their attacks have come down the right flank. Gusto is seeing a lot of action.
So, the way to play this is to bank on that Chelsea right side delivering the goods. Gusto has registered two assists in his last four matches and is bound to create plenty of openings for his teammates. So, the 9/25.50 with the Betfair Sportsbook for him to register an assist looks a bet to me.