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No Bowen, Paqueta or Kudus leaves West Ham vulnerable
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Back a goal-shy game as City attack low on confidence
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Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9110/11 stands out as does the 0-0 correct score trading angle
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Read Betfair's new 90 Minute Payout offer here
Bristol City v West Ham
Tuesday January 16, 19:40
Live on BBC 1
Where is the attacking spark for West Ham?
I've got serious doubts about West Ham's short-term prospects in front of goal without Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen and Mohammed Kudus. They are hard to trust at 1.9520/21 to win in 90 minutes in this replay.
With Kudus away at the Africa Cup of Nations and Bowen and Paqueta both still not recovered from knocks picked up in the 1-1 draw between these two teams, West Ham look in a spot of bother for this fixture.
Of their last 14 goals scored across all competitions, 10 of those have come courtesy of Bowen or Kudus whilst Paqueta recorded six assists in his last 254 minutes of action for the Hammers. With Michail Antonio still injured, it looks likely that Danny Ings and Divin Mubama will spearhead the Hammers attack.
West Ham have been hard to get a grip on this season due to their phenomenal conversion rate in front of goal that belies their poor underlying attacking process.
David Moyes' team are working at a non-penalty conversion rate of 19% this season - the best in the Premier League. However, their chance creation numbers rank them as the second worst team in the league having created just 157 openings this season - only Sheffield United (91) have racked up fewer.
All this is leading to an overperformance in front of goal, mostly due to the brilliance of Bowen and Kudus. Take them out of the equation and West Ham simply aren't the same team.
It's this backdrop of mediocrity in performance levels that leave a big part of the fanbase unsure whether Moyes is the man for the long-term. For all the impressive victories over Arsenal and Tottenham, there have been the 5-0 defeat at Fulham, the 5-1 hammering at Liverpool and stodgy draw with the Robins. Another bad night might be on the horizon.
Goals have dried up under Manning's watch
What may just save West Ham from a cup exit is the fact Bristol City arrive very much on the cold list in front of goal. After a bright and bubbly start under Liam Manning's watch, the Championship outfit have nosedived in terms of their attacking metrics.
Not only are they not scoring goals - just one in their last four games - their underlying process has hit the buffers too in that they aren't creating big chances. A look at their expected goals process shows they've created just 2.99 worth of xG in those four encounters, averaging out at just under 0.75 per 90.
Tommy Conway's goal at the London Stadium in the 1-1 draw is the only "big chance" as defined by Opta they've created in their last three matches.
Even across the season, including when Nigel Pearson was in charge, the Robins rank consistently among the bottom six teams for key attacking metrics likes shots in the box, overall expected goals and actual goals scored.
Scoring goals and creating chances remains an issue despite the change in manager.
When you factor the key personnel West Ham are missing in forward areas and City's lack of confidence and bite in their attack, playing the under 2.5 goals line at 1.9110/11 on the Betfair Exchange looks a winner in waiting to my maths.
And those with a little more stomach for a potentially low scoring game should also be eyeing up the 11.521/2 on the 0-0 correct score with the option of trading out in order to lock in a profit the longer the game stays goalless.