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Brighton scoring freely under De Zerbi
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Liverpool ninth in the Premier League
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Reds still without key players
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Home side look a big price for another win
Brighton v Liverpool
Sunday 29 January, 13:30
Live on ITV1
De Zerbi era has had a strong start
Such is the intelligent nature of Brighton's succession planning that the unwanted loss of coach Graham Potter to Chelsea hasn't derailed the club's season. Like Potter, Roberto De Zerbi is a thoughtful manager who has a clear and bold approach, and Brighton knew they had an intelligent and receptive group of players who were willing to adapt to their new Italian boss's methods.
I know there are some pundits who like to pretend the Premier League is some kind of impenetrable cave of wonder, unintelligible to the unseasoned outsider, but coaches have dispelled that myth over and over again. Mauricio Pochettino, Antonio Conte, Jürgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel and a certain Pep Guardiola have all thrived in English football with no previous experience of the league.
Brighton are sixth in the league, and the Infogol Expected Goals data says they are exactly where they deserve to be in the standings. They have an Expected Goal Difference of 8.1, which is the best outside the top three. Their only defeat across the last six competitive games was against top-flight leaders Arsenal.
It's also worth noting that the Seagulls have uncovered one of the most exciting young strikers in the Premier League. The 18-year-old Republic of Ireland international Evan Ferguson looks like he's been a centre-forward at the top level for years. He has excellent instincts in front of goal, his movement is intelligent, and he has found the net in three of his last five competitive appearances. After years of lacking an elite centre-forward, Brighton might just have found one.
De Zerbi selected a strong side for the 5-1 win at second-tier Middlesbrough in round three, so expect a strong line-up here. Adam Lallana may miss out against his former club after picking up a knock against Leicester, while Levi Colwill is expected to miss the game with injury.
Klopp facing serious challenge to revive Reds
Having come so close to an unprecedented quadruple, an exhausted Liverpool are in the midst of trying to rebuild a side, while also attempting to be competitive. That was a balance Manchester United and Arsenal struggled to strike, and they are only now coming out of a difficult process. While much of Liverpool's fanbase appears to be obsessed with the pursuit of a midfielder, the truth is that the Reds' drop in intensity is a team-wide problem.
Klopp's football only works if everyone is firing on all cylinders, with the pressing system unable to accommodate passengers. A slew of injuries haven't helped, with the likes of Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz, Virgil van Dijk and Roberto Firmino all sidelined at various stages.
Last week's drab draw with Chelsea left Klopp's side ninth in the Premier League, ten points off the top four with a game in hand. With Newcastle United and Manchester United looking solid this season, reaching the Champions League spots is a tough ask. In this season's UCL, Liverpool will face bogey side Real Madrid in the last 16, the team that has knocked Liverpool out three times in the Klopp era.
This trip to Brighton isn't just about keeping the dream of silverware alive, but it's also about exorcising ghosts. Liverpool's recent 3-0 hammering at the Amex featured what Klopp described as the worst performance since he took charge, as his side was consistently shredded by a hungry, well-organised outfit.
Van Dijk, Firmino, Jota and Luis Diaz are all still out injured, while in goal Klopp will decide between first-choice Alisson and unflappable cup keeper Caoimhin Kelleher.
Brighton can let loose
Given the scale of Brighton's victory over Liverpool in the league this month, it's a little jarring to see them trading at 2.789/5 to win this inside 90 minutes. However, the route I'll go down is simply to back Brighton to score Over 1.5 Goals at 11/10 on the Sportsbook - the Seagulls have scored at least two goals in each of their last six matches, they put three past Liverpool in the league and even scored twice in defeat to Arsenal. Liverpool have conceded at least twice in four of their last eight competitive matches. It's also worth remembering that Brighton drew 3-3 at Anfield earlier this season.
Mitoma mayhem incoming?
Japanese winger Kaoru Mitoma gave Trent Alexander-Arnold no end of headaches in the league meeting, and he has delivered five goals and an assist in all competitions this term. He is 4/7 on the Sportsbook just to have a shot on target, and he is averaging 0.96 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League.
You can use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to double up Mitoma to have a shot on target and Over 2.5 Goals in the match at 2.35/4. Eleven of Brighton's last 12 games in all competitions have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.