European U21 Championships Final: Spot kick your best route to profit

Stefan Kuntz
Stefan Kuntz's Germany are considerable outsiders going into the final.

Jamie Pacheco's outright tip is sitting pretty ahead of the U21 final but the best bet for this game might just be to put your money on yet another penalty being awarded...

"If it’s been a tournament high on goals, it’s also been one high on penalties. They’ve been awarded on a regular basis throughout the tournament. Just as an example, each of the four semi-finalists were awarded one. For the record, they scored all of them."

Spain U21 v Germany U21
Sunday June 23, 18:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Spain getting better by the game

It seems a long time ago now but Spain came pretty close to being knocked out as far back as their second group game. With the clock ticking away, they found a late winner against Belgium and haven't looked back since, thrashing Poland 5-0 in their final group game and comprehensively beating France 4-1 in the semis.

Their performance against Sylvain Ripoll's men was of the highest quality. Despite going a goal down, they kept their cool, passed the ball beautifully and just kept on going with some of their counter-attacking football of the sort you'd expect to see played by Barcelona or the senior Spain team.

The fact that their four goals all came from separate players shows they have attacking threats in plenty of different areas. They're looking very impressive indeed.

Did Germany peak too soon?

If Spain seem to be getting better game by game then Germany have been more a case of peaking too early. Impressive in beating Denmark 3-1 and Serbia 6-1, they put in a pretty lacklustre performance when drawing 1-1 with Austria and did it the hard way against Romania.

Twice they went a goal behind, twice they got back to parity before going 3-2 up late on and finished Romania off with virtually the last kick of the game to make it 4-2. It really wasn't as comfortable as the scoreline suggests.

If they go on to win this, they have one man in particular to thank. Luca Waldschmidt has been incredible all tournament and has seven goals from just five matches, including netting two in the semi. He'd be a deserved winner of the Player of the Tournament award whether Germany go on to win it or not.

Spain a tad short for 90-minte win

Spain were of course my outright tip before an Adidas Conext 19 size 5 ball was kicked in anger.

So it's a very nice position to be in when a 4/1 chance is now a 4/9 shot to win the tournament.

That said, I appreciate not everyone will have been on Spain from the start so for those looking for a bet on the match winner market, the advice is...to leave it alone.

Spain have been excellent for the last two games yes, but 19/20 on the 90 minute win is a bit shorter than what I would have expected.

Germany's pacy counter-attacking football will provide a very different challenge to what they've been up against so far and we'll have to see how their defence copes with that. For starters, they'll have a hard time keeping that man Waldschmidt in check. His mate Nadiem Amiri had an excellent game against Romania as well, including a brilliant solo effort for the first of his two goals.

If anything, a lay-to-back of Spain on the Exchange might be the better option if you really want to play this market.

No reason to think the goals might dry up

This tournament has been insane in terms of the number of goals scored. 20 games have yielded 75 goals at an average of 3.75 goals a match and we've seen a goal scored on average, every 24 minutes. If you'd blindly backed over 3.5 goals every match you'd be laughing your way to Santander Bank.

There's certainly the potential for goals here again among two sides who are far better going forward than defending. Spain might just run away with it like they did against France or Poland or it could be a real match of to-and-fro like the Germany v Romania game was.

Enough potential scenarios to think it's worth going with over 3.5 goals at 17/10 one last time.

Penalty your best route to profit

The bet I like the most from the match isn't that one, though. If it's been a tournament high on goals, it's also been one high on penalties. They've been awarded on a regular basis throughout the tournament. Just as an example, each of the four semi-finalists were awarded one. For the record, they scored all of them.

I think there are two reasons for the high numbers. The first is some occasional erratic defending, not unusual at this level. The second is just a theory but I think there's something in it. VAR.

Much like DRS in cricket, I think the technology increases the number of penalties awarded- more are given that hadn't been originally given than cases where it was given and then reversed. In cricket it results in more batsmen been given out that hadn't been than batsmen reprieved who hadn't been given. Here it results in more penalties.

At 2.77/4 on the Exchange it's certainly worth changing that we get one more.

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