Bayern v Stuttgart - Olise to keep riding the wave
Sunday 19 April, 16:30
Bayern Munich secured their most important win of the season on Wednesday, as they came from behind three times to beat Real Madrid 4-3 on the night, winning their Champions League quarter-final 5-3 on aggregate.
Harry Kane scored his 50th club goal of the season, becoming the first Englishman to do that in a top-five league since the 1930s. Luis Diaz smashed in a late goal to give Bayern an aggregate lead, and Joshua Kimmich impressed in midfield once again.
However, the man who was head and shoulders above the rest across the two legs was Michael Olise. He scored a magnificent long-range curler to wrap up the tie right at the end, and in the first leg he produced a sensational assist for Harry Kane, drawing three players towards him before releasing the ball at just the right time.
If Borussia Dortmund drop points at Hoffenheim on Saturday, Bayern can win the league on Sunday afternoon. They have already secured their status as the best Bundesliga attack of all time - last weekend's 5-0 win at St Pauli took them 105 league goals, smashing a record that had stood since 1972.
With Lennart Karl out for weeks with injury, Olise is likely to start, and I can't ignore the 6/42.50 on offer to back the French international to score. Stuttgart are a strong side who are chasing Champions League qualification, but Bayern put five goals past them in the reverse fixture, and the Bavarians have rattled in 14 goals across their last four clashes with VfB.
Olise has scored in his last two competitive games, and has rattled in five goals across his last seven matches.
Back Michael Olise to score @
Lille v Nice - Les Dogues can maul ailing visitors
Saturday 18 April, 20:05
Live on Ligue 1 Pass
The subject of multi-club ownership is a thorny one, and Nice fans are doubtless feeling sore about what has happened to their club. While Ineos and Sir Jim Ratcliffe have been focusing on their minority ownership of Manchester United, Nice have been declining swiftly. The Riviera side are fourth from bottom, just four points above the relegation playoff spot. Players Jeremie Boga and Terem Moffi were chased out of the club in January by angry ultras, and talented coach Franck Haise walked out in December.
Veteran coach Claude Puel has returned to Nice for a second spell in charge, but the team has won just two of the last 19 league games.
Lille are in sensational form. Bruno Genesio has delivered six wins and three draws across the last nine matchdays, and Les Dogues have broken into the Champions League places. Strikers Olivier Giroud and Matias Fernandez Pardo are in sparkling form, and they'll face a defence that has shipped 18 goals across the last eight games.
I'll back Lille -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.8810/11. Eight of Nice's last ten league defeats have been by two goals or more.
Back Lille -1.0 on the Asian Handicap @
Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad - Cup final can feature goals
Saturday 18 April, 20:00
Live on ITV4
What a week it could prove to be for Atletico Madrid and long-serving coach Diego Simeone. On Tuesday the capital club dumped Barcelona out of the Champions League, losing 2-1 on the night but winning 3-2 on aggregate. While the out-of-date view of Simeone's football is that it is safety-first and defensive, the truth is very different.
This is a squad that has lots of technically gifted attacking players, and it's no longer the biting, snarling, fighting Atleti of old. If you look at their nine competitive games against Real Madrid and Barcelona this season, there have been a total of 34 goals.
That ability to score goals consistently against the big hitters has seen them dump Barcelona out of two major cup competitions this term, as they also beat the Catalan giants 4-3 on aggregate in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey. Basque giants Real Sociedad await in the final this weekend, and we could be in for a cracker.
La Real's season has been transformed by former Stuttgart and Hoffenheim boss Pellegrino Matarazzo. The Italian-American's first game in charge was a 1-1 draw against Atletico in early January, and since then the San Sebastian club have won ten, drawn four and lost three in all competitions. On of those three defeats was a 3-2 reverse against Atletico at the Metropolitano.
This is a special game for Atletico's record scorer Antoine Griezmann, as he started his La Liga career with Real Sociedad. He'll leave Spain soon to move to MLS, and this is his penultimate shot at glory with Los Colchoneros.
I fancy goals here, and I'll back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.981/1. I know cup finals are often dour, careful affairs, but that's not the current reality with these two sides. 12 of Real Sociedad's last 17 games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land, and that bet has been successful in 12 of the last 20 Copa del Rey finals.
Back Over 2.5 Goals in the Copa del Rey final @