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Roma hit by injuries and fatigue
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Mourinho looking for sixth major UEFA trophy
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Bayer revitalised under Xabi Alonso
Mourinho focused on more European glory
During the weekend's 2-0 home defeat to Inter, Roma fans serenaded coach Jose Mourinho, and he blew kisses back in their direction.
It's been suggested that fans of the Giallorossi might build a wall around the training ground just to keep hold of the Portuguese tactician, who wrote himself into club folklore with success in the Europa Conference League last season.
Mourinho has danced this Europa League dance before, having won the competition with Porto and Manchester United. Having also lifted the Champions League with Porto and Inter, there's simply no doubting Mourinho's pedigree in continental competition.
He has a tattoo on his arm with all three major European trophies (he boasted he's the only coach that can legitimately have it).
And yet the picture isn't perfect ahead of this UEL semi-final. Roma's league form has faltered, with just three wins in the last nine matches in Serie A, and that run has seen the capital club drop to seventh, five points off the top four.
Winning this competition is Roma's best chance of securing Champions League football, and I suspect this tournament has been Mourinho's top priority for a while.
Mourinho has suggested injuries and fatigue are taking their toll, and it's hard to disagree.
He only used Tammy Abraham and Paulo Dybala as second-half subs against Inter, which suggests both could start on Thursday night. Chris Smalling and Gini Wijnaldum hope to return after injury, but at time of writing that was by no means certain, and both Rick Karsdorp and Marash Kumbulla are out of action.
Alonso's Rhineland revival faces acid test
It's been a chaotic season for Bayer Leverkusen. They went into the campaign as some people's favourites to challenge Bayern for the title, but a clumsy DFB Pokal exit at lower-league Elversberg preceded a complete meltdown in the league, and coach Gerardo Seoane got his marching orders.
Xabi Alonso, having gained experience of the Bundesliga as a successful player with Bayern Munich, has turned the campaign around.
Bayer have surged away from the dropzone and into the top six, and they are a couple of good performances away from their first European final since 2002. Just over two decades ago, Zinedine Zidane's amazing volley for Real Madrid denied Die Werkself Champions League glory at Hampden Park.
Alonso has managed to get the best out of a talented group of players, but the return of the talismanic Florian Wirtz from injury has been a huge help.
The 20-year-old German international missed the first half of the season and the World Cup with a serious knee injury, and since returning he has delivered four goals and eight assists across the Bundesliga and Europa League. That's 12 goal involvements in just 20 appearances.
Moussa Diaby has rediscovered his mojo under Alonso, with 12 goals and nine assists across the BL and UEL.
Swashbuckling wing-back Jeremie Frimpong has a staggering eight league goals, while young French forward Amine Adli has begun to really blossom.
Bayer have been able to cover for star striker Patrik Schick, whose season has never really got going because of injury and poor form.
Schick is still sidelined by a groin problem, but Alonso has no fresh concerns. He isn't expected to make too many changes from the team that surprisingly lost at home to local rivals Köln on Friday.
Bayer can at least find the net
Roma are trading at 2.26/5 to win here, and although that feels a bit short against quality opposition, I'm loath to truly oppose Mourinho and a passionate home crowd.
Instead, my way of getting Bayer onside will be to back BTTS at 1.981/1. I understand that the market expects Mourinho to just dig in and make it a horrible battle, but Leverkusen have too much firepower for that to work for 90 minutes.
Even if Chris Smalling returns, he won't be fully fit. His fellow centre-back Roger Ibanez is an accident waiting to happen, and has a history of making errors in big games.
Bayer scored three goals at Monaco and four at Union Saint-Gilloise, and they should be able to score at least once here.
I don't trust them to keep a clean sheet though - goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky makes far too many errors, and Bayer have only managed clean sheets against Ferencvaros in this Europa League run.
Diaby danger the key to Bet Builder
Moussa Diaby averages a career-high 2.62 shots per 90 in the Bundesliga this season, and incredibly that figure climbs to well above three in the Europa League. On that basis I'll happily back Diaby to have 2+ shots to kick off our Bet Builder.
I'll throw in Bryan Cristante to commit at least one foul, as he has committed a tournament-high 19 fouls so far. I'll also say that Bayer's Robert Andrich will commit a foul, as he's picked up 13 yellow cards this term.
I'll wrap things up by backing Over 6.5 Corners, as both teams' games this term have averaged above that line. That comes out at 3.54127/50.