- United have lost just one of their last ten games
- Hosts have lost back-to-back games in La Liga
- Rashford scored winner v West Ham
Real Sociedad v Manchester United
Thursday 03 November, 17:45
Live on BT Sport
La Real hope to Basque in glory of topping group
Real Sociedad have been perfect in the Europa League so far, winning all five of their group-stage games. If they avoid suffering a defeat by two clear goals, they will automatically advance to the last 16, avoiding a two-legged tie against a Champions League dropout.
Coach Imanol Alguacil - a Real Sociedad fan - has led the team with distinction at home and abroad.
Despite losing star striker Alexander Isak to Newcastle and seeing the likes of Mikel Oyarzabal, Mohamed Ali Cho, Umar Sadiq and David Silva all struck down by injury, the coach has still managed to guide his beloved club into La Liga's top five.
However, if you look at La Real's games against quality sides at Anoeta, the picture is a little darker.
They lost at home to Real Betis at the weekend, and they were flattened 4-1 by Barcelona. They have lost back-to-back games in La Liga (they also went down 1-0 at Rayo Vallecano), and have failed to score in both matches.
We also shouldn't ignore the fact that Manchester United played Real Sociedad in a UEL knockout match last year, and they smashed the Basque side 4-0.
That La Real team featured Isak, Oyarzabal and Silva, so it was arguably a stronger side than the one they will deploy on Thursday night. There are caveats - the game was played in Turin, and there wasn't the fierce crowd we can expect this time around.
Ten Hag's side has chance to show improvement
When Manchester United were edged out 1-0 at Old Trafford by Real Sociedad, the Erik ten Hag revolution was in its infancy. The Red Devils are still far from the finished article, but they have come a long way in a short space of time.
Summer signings like Antony, Lisandro Martinez and Casemiro have hit the ground running, ten Hag's handling of the Cristiano Ronaldo debacle has increased his authority, and there are signs that the players are taking on board what ten Hag wants in terms of build-up play and the overall tactical approach.
United are just a point off the Premier League's top four with a game in hand, and they are ahead of both Liverpool and Chelsea.
Their performances in the Europa League have been functional for the most part, and at times downright dull, but they are still in with a shot of snatching that golden ticket to the last 16.
Since their defeat to La Real in early September, Manchester United have lost just once in ten games, and that was a 6-3 derby loss at an Erling Haaland-inspired Manchester City.
Although they were far from fluent in Sunday's 1-0 win over West Ham, they did at least show they can dig in defensively, and David de Gea made two world-class saves to keep the score at 1-0.
Antony and Victor Lindelof could return from injury and illness respectively, but Raphael Varane, Anthony Martial and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are all expected to miss out. It remains to be seen whether Ronaldo will once again lead the line.
United will win, but will it be enough?
It's worth noting that Real Sociedad can actually afford to lose this game by a single goal, which puts them in a strange position psychologically.
I don't expect this to be a shootout, and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing Under 2.5 Goals at 1.981/1, especially when you examine Real Sociedad's defensive record.
However, I do think United are generously priced at 2.285/4 to take the victory here. They have improved significantly, ten Hag will deploy a strong side, and La Real have lost a number of key players.
The hosts can afford to lose by a goal, so even if they go behind, they won't necessarily push hard to find a leveller if they don't need to.
Rashford streak can continue
Manchester United forward Marcus Rashford has scored in each of his last two games, and on Sunday he became only the 22nd player in United's history to rack up 100 goals for the Red Devils.
I believe he is rediscovering the sharpness he needs to thrive under ten Hag, and he has scored three goals in this competition already.
At 3.259/4, I think Rashford is over-priced in the Sportsbook's To Score market. If you want to be a little more conservative, you can back him to score or assist at 2.47/5. Rashford has contributed three assists this term.