- Gunners are unbeaten in UEL so far
- PSV have scored 31 goals at home already
PSV v Arsenal
Thursday 27 October, 17:45
Live on BT Sport 2
PSV have backs against the wall
PSV's 1-0 defeat at the Emirates means that only a win against the Gunners this week will keep alive their hopes of qualifying for the last 16 of the Europa League as group winners.
With Norwegian side Bodo Glimt breathing down their necks, PSV aren't even certain of making the knockout rounds at all, so Thursday is one of their most important days of the season so far.
Confidence was damaged yet further by Sunday's 4-2 loss at Groningen, a defeat that saw Ruud van Nistelrooy's side slip four points behind old foes Ajax in the Eredivisie title race.
Given that PSV had won six of their last seven competitive matches ahead of their trip to North London, it has been a jarring few days for the Dutch giants.
PSV were completely outplayed at the Emirates (the Infogol stats show the Arsenal won the xG battle 3.78 to 0.26), but they have reason to believe they can perform better on home soil.
At the Philips Stadion, PSV have won all but two of their competitive games (they drew with Bodo Glimt and lost to Rangers in the UCL qualifiers), and they have scored 31 goals in those nine outings.
PSV are still without Yorbe Vertessen, Marco van Ginkel and Oliver Boscagli, who are all on the sidelines with injury.
Gunners through, but work to do
Arsenal's progress in the Europa League has been impressive so far, with four wins from four. Zurich were edged out 2-1 in Switzerland, Bodo Glimt were beaten home and away and PSV were steamrollered last season.
Gunners boss Mikel Arteta has done a fine job rotating his squad, and if he snags top spot in the Netherlands on Thursday, he'll create a dead rubber for Matchday Six and wipe away the onerous prospect of a two-legged playoff against a Champions League dropout.
A long winning run was ended at the weekend, as Arsenal started well at Southampton but ultimately had to settle for a 1-1 draw. Missing opportunities has been a running theme for Arteta's side recently - they missed a hatful of chances against PSV last week, and left some goals on the pitch at St. Mary's.
However, if you look at the general picture, they are overperforming in attack compared to their Infogol Expected Goals figures. They have scored 25 Premier League goals from an xG of 21.7.
What's interesting is that Arsenal have been sharing the goals around - no-one in the squad has more than five Premier League goals, but five different players have scored three top-flight goals or more.
Players like Eddie Nketiah and Fabio Vieira have done themselves no harm with their UEL performances, and we should see American Matt Turner selected once again in goal. Mohamed Elneny, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Emile Smith Rowe are all still out injured.
Hosts have to go for it
I keep getting burned by going for BTTS in Arsenal games in this tournament, but I can't resist this time around. PSV have an outstanding scoring record at home, they have to push for a win, and I can see this becoming quite a chaotic game, especially if Arsenal score first.
We can use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to back BTTS and Arsenal/Draw Double Chance at 1.981/1. Arsenal have lost just once in all competitions this term, and even that was a rather unfortunate defeat at Manchester United.
Can Gakpo do some damage?
Arsenal did a great job of limiting the influence of PSV skipper Cody Gakpo in the first leg, but he has still delivered an incredible 12 goals and ten assists across his 15 games in the Eredivisie and Europa League this term.
On that basis, his price of 2.26/5 in the To Score or Assist market seems more than fair.
On the Arsenal side, Eddie Nketiah got into some good positions in the first game between these two, and he is 13/8 to score at any time.