AEK Athens v Brighton: Seagulls to set up Marseille showdown

• Brighton to exact group stage revenge on AEK Athens

• João Pedro can star again in Europe

• Read Betfair's new 90 minute payout offer here

AEK Athens v Brighton & Hove Albion
Thursday 30th November, 17:45
Live on TNT Sports 2

Much-need win for Seagulls

You might have seen Roberto De Zerbi sprinting towards the away end, fists pumping, after Brighton's win at Nottingham Forest at the weekend. For a team who've won a lot of games under the Italian - and not to mention, qualified for Europe last season - those extended celebrations at the City Ground said a lot about their current situation.

"We're suffering too much, we're losing too many players," De Zerbi said after his team's 3-2 win, in which Ansu Fati and Tariq Lamptey were both forced off with first half injuries. Brighton's list of absences was already extensive, and yet the injuries keep coming whilst the team's rate of games isn't slowing.

One of the main reasons for their current situation is, of course, the fact of being involved in European competition this season. With two games to spare, Brighton are still very much in the fight to qualify for the Europa League knockout stages, and will be heading to Athens with the idea of eventually winning their group, not merely progressing.

Second place in Group B would take them into the play-off round, adding an extra two games to their schedule against a team dropping out of the Champions League. And with Brighton hosting Marseille - the team leading Group B - in their final group stage game, the Seagulls will be entirely focused on making it to that match with a chance to take top spot.

The good news for Brighton, to put the injury situation aside for a moment, is that their performance at Nottingham Forest was very good while they had 11 men on the pitch. Of course, to see the game out with 10 men has it merits, but their play with respect to De Zerbi's ideas was at a very good level up until Lewis Dunk's red card.

Slight odds-on visitors worth backing

For AEK Athens, meanwhile, they will be unable to qualify for the knockout stages with a loss to Brighton and will need a victory to go back level with the Seagulls in the group. Although they're not bottom of Group B, the Greek side have the fourth-worst xG difference in the Europa League this term (-3.3), behind only Backa Topola (-5.9), Sheriff Tiraspol (-5.2) and Raków Czestochowa (-4.2).

Indeed, AEK's only victory in the Europa League this term came away at Brighton (3-2) back in September. In a game where they had just 25% possession and were dominated in terms of chances created (2.7 to 1.3 on xG), their heightened efficiency on that night isn't likely to carry over for a second time.

Brighton may be walking wounded, but with their European objectives still very much in play, I expect the Seagulls' spirited performance from the weekend to carry over into their midweek trip here. De Zerbi's side proved to themselves that they can still play at a high level, even when everything is going against them.

João Pedro can drag Brighton to victory again

João Pedro has started as many games in cup competitions this season (4) as he has in the Premier League. Suffice to say, the Brazilian is still in the process of working his way into the starting eleven on a regular basis, and has been used largely for substitute cameos in the league until now.

After Ansu Fati's first half injury at the weekend, however, the 22-year-old came on and scored twice in their 3-2 win at the City Ground. Although the plan was no doubt to keep him a little fresher for their game in Athens this week, it'd be fair to say he did himself no harm in the standing of his manager's plans - particularly given the fact he's been their specialist in the Europa League this season.

Following Saturday's game, João Pedro is now Brighton's top scorer across all competitions this season on eight goals - four of which have come in the Europa League. And after his significant contribution at the weekend, he'll be in high spirits going back to the competition in which he's been most influential this term.

Brighton's top marksman is averaging 2.8 shots and eight touches in the opposition box per 90 this season, while he's also been on penalty duty for the Seagulls in Europe, should they manage to earn themselves one. In a game with big implications and with his confidence high after a brace last time out, I'll take him to score anytime in this one at 2/13.00.

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