Germany v Hungary: Low's resurgent hosts to corner the underdogs

Germany vs Hungary
Wed, 20:00 BST
Live on BBC2

Germany overwhelming favourites

Germany are such short-priced favourites to win here that if you fancy Joachim Low's side to triumph you'll have to find other ways to back the hosts.

Die Mannschaft are 1.21/5 to claim all three points in Munich against a Hungary side that haver put up good resistance for much of the two games they have played so far but now find themselves in the novel position of needing to win a game.

Hungary are 19.018/1 to win, with the The Draw 8.27/1, and for all the virtues of obduracy they have displayed to date at these finals, Hungary will do well to avoid a second defeat in three matches.

Thomas Muller ruled out

The fact that Hungary have to win to stand any chance of reaching the knockout phase plays into Germany's hands as Low's players ought to have opportunities to pick off their opponents on the break at some point.

Kai Havertz and co. will be full of confidence after their 4-2 win over Portugal and that victory showcased their attacking potential.

Thomas Muller misses this game through injury but Havertz and Serge Gnabry ought to keep their places and the candidates to replace Muller - Leroy Sane, Timo Wener, Leon Goretzka and Kevin Volland - are quality performers in their own right.

The difference in calibre between these two sides ought lead to a home victory but the question is how to make Germany's likely superiority pay.

Hosts set to start strongly

Germany at -2.0 on the Asian Handicap is an option. With this selection, you'll get your stakes back if Germany win by two goals - as they did versus Portugal - and make a profit if they win by three or more goals.

There's a risk to this selection, however, in that, if Germany lead by one or two goals, they may well ease off, saving themselves for the forthcoming knockout phass they'll essentially have qualified for.

At 1.664/6, Germany-Germany on the Half Time/Full Time market is an alternative if you believe Germany can repeat their feat of leading at half-time against Portugal and then going on to win the game. Roared on by the home supporters in Munich, Germany are likely to take the game to Hungary from the outset, which could see Low's side move into a comfortable position before the interval.

Expect thrilling second-half

Instead of finding ways to back Germany to win, however, we prefer looking at some of the trends that point towards opportunities in more neutral markets on the game.

Our first selection is to back Second Half in the Half With Most Goals market.

Monday night's games showed that final group matches may well open up after half-time. Belgium vs Finland went from 0-0 at half-time to a 2-0 win for Belgium, while a flurry of late scoring action saw Denmark run out 4-1 winners over Russia.

Hungary have also displayed a propensity for conceding late goals: all three of the goals they leaked in their 3-0 opening-game defeat to Portugal came in the final 10 minutes. And Germany scored twice after half-time against Portugal, sloppily conceding one goal after the interval, too.

Needing a win, Hungary will have to take risks in the second-half if they find themselves behind or on level terms at half-time. The odds of evens on the second-half having more goals than the first are worth taking.

Corners the smart selection

The second selection is on the game having few corners.

This is largely down to Hungary, who have won just one corner - yes, just one - across their two games so far. That sole corner kick came in their 1=1 draw against Hungary. Germany have hardly been prolific corner winners, either: they earned five against France, and three against Portugal.

Looking at the four games these two sides have played so far, the average corner count per game is 6.75.

In the Corners Odds market, 9 or Less should be available at 1.758/11. Looking at the corner stats that these two sides have generated so far, those odds are well worth taking.