Italy v England: Kane and Sterling double act can land 24/1 Bet Builder

Italy v England
Sunday, 20:00
Live on BBC1 and ITV 1

England have two standouts

For anyone under the age of 55, England playing in the final of a major tournament is completely new ground.

It seems a bit much to try and find clues from 1966 so all we really have to go on is how England have performed in this tournament.

Thankfully, there is plenty of consistency that can lead us towards some bets in other markets.

The two strongest England trends so far are defensive solidity and repeat goalscorers.

England have conceded just one goal in the tournament over six games - a thumping free-kick from outside the box by Denmark's Mikkel Damsgaard.

Seven of their 10 tournament goals have been shared by two players - Harry Kane (4) and Raheem Sterling (3).

It would have been four apiece had Danish skipper Simon Kjaer not bundled the ball into his own net with Sterling waiting to tap home.

So apart from that giddy second half against Ukraine when Harry Maguire and Jordan Henderson netted with headers, it's pretty obvious where to look when sussing out potential England goalscorers.

Italians have spread goals

Like England, Italy cruised through the group stage with a trio of clean sheets after beating Turkey 3-0, Switzerland 3-0 and Wales 1-0. All those games were on home soil in Rome.

Their scorers: Ciro Immobile (2), Manuel Locatelli (2), Lorenzo Insigne, Matteo Pessina and an own goal.

But it's been a bit more of a confusing picture since.

They've conceded a goal in each of their knockout games (although the one against Austria came in extra-time) and Immobile has failed to add to his tally.

Instead, a new scoring threat has emerged in the shape of Juventus frontman Federico Chiesa, who netted excellent goals against Austria and Spain in the semi-final.

Pessina scored again versus Austria while Insigne netted a worldie against Belgium after Nicolo Barella had put the Azzurri in front.

It means, unlike England, their 12 goals have been divided up, with five players - Immobile, Locatelli, Insigne, Pessina and Chiesa - scoring two each.

However, if you had to whittle that list down to two as the most likely source of another it would have to be in-form Chiesa and probably Insigne, who could just pull something out of a hat.

Goal times point to second half

In terms of when both teams have scored, the breakdown is this:

England - 1st half 3, 2nd half 6, Extra-time 1
Italy - 1st half 4, 2nd half 7, Extra-time 1

Overall, that's 13 second half goals, seven before the break and two in extra time.

That's the hard graft done then. Time to pick out the best bets using those above stats as a helping hand...

England can make history repeat

England looked by far the stronger team in extra-time against Denmark and got it done even if the winner was a tad dubious coming via a soft penalty and a botched first attempt by Kane.

By contrast, Italy looked to be running out of gas against Spain and were glad to hold out for penalties.

Historical symmetry buffs will enjoy the fact that England beat West Germany in extra-time in 1966 but I prefer to use the more recent example of Wednesday night!

England to win in extra-time at 9/1 looks a tasty price and I'm going to combine it with another punt on the Bet Builder.

It's likely to be tight so I'll go with the Draw at Half Time and England to win in Extra Time option which pays 16.015/1.

You'll get slightly bigger odds going for 0-0 at the break but I'm not ruling out 1-1 so the HT draw looks safer.

Cash in on Kane and Sterling

Harry Kane topped the Premier League's assist charts last season with 14 so he's incredibly good at setting them up as well as banging them in.

He's yet to grab an assist in Euro 2020 but the same elements are there for him to break that duck.

So many of Kane's assists for Spurs were dropping deep and playing in the speedy Heung-Min Son.

In Sterling and Bukayo Saka/Jordan Sancho, Kane has several teammates who can replicate the Son role. We've already seen him thread a number of excellent through balls behind defences and Gareth Southgate has realised that Kane works best with fast players around him. That's why Jack Grealish and Phil Foden have had limited game time.

So, let's try the very realistic scenario of Kane to assist and Sterling to score anytime which pays just under 24.023/1 on the Bet Builder.

Sterling had two efforts superbly saved by Kasper Schmeichel against Denmark, the first at 0-1 and the second right at the end of extra-time. Kane had set him up both times.

I'll also try the reverse option of Sterling to assist and Kane to score at close to 14.013/1. That's already landed in the knockout phase when Sterling slipped in Kane to score the early opening goal against Ukraine.

Chiesa looks best Italy hope

As mentioned, Chiesa appears to be Italy's standout frontman in this tournament with Immobile fading.

I'm surprised to see him at 4/1 for an anytime goal although, if he does net, I don't think it will be decisive.

Another way of saying that is England will score too and not lose the game.

And another way of saying that in a Bet Builder way is Chiesa to score, Both teams to Score and England And Draw on the Double Chance. All those elements are in 90 minutes of course.

It pays just over 11.010/1.

Jorginho value for Top Player

The outright betting is tight and the basic To Lift The Trophy market shows England at 1.910/11 and Italy at 2.111/10.

That's interesting because UEFA has a history of giving the Best Player of the Tournament award to a midfielder from the winning team.

Germany's Matthias Sammer won it in 1996, Greece's Theo Zagorakis was awarded the prize in 2004 and Spanish duo Xavi and Andres Iniesta took the honour in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

Despite Italy being fractional underdogs, the Player of the Tournament betting is heavily skewed in England's favour with Sterling at 2.757/4 and Kane at 4.57/2.

The first Italian listed is at 10.09/1 and the man in question is Jorginho. Quite simply, that's too big.

The Chelsea midfielder has been outstanding so far: an ever-present in the Italy midfield with enough eye-catching moments to make an impressive best bits video reel.

Crucially it includes his trademark hopped penalty to win the semi-final shootout when outfoxed Spain goalkeeper Unai Simon seemed to be applauding before the ball had even gone over the line.

That really thrusts Jorginho further into the limelight and, if Italy do get over the line, he'd have to have a golden chance of winning this unless perhaps Chiesa scored one or two.

This punt gets even better though. There's a series of Tournament winner/Player of the Tournament doubles on offer and Italy/Jorginho is 15.014/1.

Surely they wouldn't give him it if England lifted the trophy so getting this more likelier option at a bigger price has to be the way to go.

No England fan wants to back Italy at Evens to win the trophy but this somewhat elaborate juicy-priced alternative could soften the blow a little if it lands.

Finally, I'll have a small play on Mikkel Damsgaard for Best Young Player of the Tournament at 17.016/1.

There's a chance UEFA will want to recognise Denmark in some way given how their players have acted so heroically since Christian Eriksen suffered his shocking cardiac arrest.

Damsgaard - who got his opportunity unexpectedly - has performed admirably and scored two wonderful goals against Russia and England.

Eriksen to give him the award perhaps?

Perhaps it's a bit far-fetched but let's have a small play.