Euro 2020 Tactical View: Wales could cause an upset against Italy

Alex Keble
19 June 2021
4:30 min read

Bale can fire Wales to a famous result

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Alex Keble looks ahead to the third round of Euro 2020 matches, predicting Wales to get at least a point against Italy...

"Certainly in Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, who combined superbly against Turkey, the Welsh have the talent to break beyond the back line."

Bale & Ramsey to test Italy's high line

Italy v Wales
Sunday, 17:00
Live on ITV

Roberto Mancini will most likely make a few changes on Sunday in order to keep his players fresh for the latter rounds, particularly given how much energy they have expended in an impressively fast-paced start to the tournament. Even minor squad rotation should slow their rhythms down, meaning Wales are less likely to be penned in like Italy's other opponents have been.

If Joe Rodon and Joe Allen can evade Italy's initial press after they lose the ball there will be plenty of space behind Italy's high defensive line; Mancini's side haven't really been tested yet and their expansive approach could prove a little fragile against a confident Wales. Certainly in Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, who combined superbly against Turkey, the Welsh have the talent to break beyond the back line.

Daniel James will also be a crucial player from the right. Italy have been attacking with lopsided full-back as right-back Giovanni Lorenzo forms a back three and left-back Leonardo Spinazzola overlaps, and so James may well find open patches of grass to sprint into. There is a decent chance of an upset in Rome.

England need serious tactical changes

Czech Republic v England
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on ITV

Gareth Southgate got a lot of things wrong in the 0-0 draw with Scotland and it is vital he corrects them to avoid England losing all momentum and energy before the knockout stage. First, he needs to release his full-backs to overlap the wingers, which will either free the wingers to cut inside (by distracting the defender) or create opportunities to cross for Harry Kane.

Second, he needs to rejig central midfield in order to get some urgent line-breaking passers into the middle of the park. It was all too static and sideways on Friday night, a game that called for Jude Bellingham and Mason Mount in deeper areas to shuffle the ball forward. Finally, there is a growing need to start Jack Grealish - not just for his creativity, but because he creates space for others by sucking opponents towards him - and to give minutes to one of the best young players in the world, Jadon Sancho.

Ultimately England's tournament will be judged on how they fare as a counter-attacking side against the top nations, so to some extent the Scotland game doesn't matter. But they can't afford to have the fans on their backs, and so Southgate is likely to make the necessary changes, ready to risk a more attacking setup because progress is all-but guaranteed.

Gareth Southgate - 1280 (2).jpg

Robertson & Tierney to get behind Perisic

Croatia v Scotland
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on ITV 4

Croatia have been pedestrian and underwhelming at this tournament so far, showing their age and their reliance on excellent passers in central midfield. Luka Modric and Matteo Kovacic have made them into a slow, possession-centric side unable to carve out chances when playing against a deep defensive line. It took a brilliant goal from Ivan Perisic to avoid defeat to Czech Republic, suggesting Scotland have a good chance of success.

Steve Clarke's defensive tactics, holding a 5-3-2 in a low block, are perfect for this game; Modric and Kovacic can be controlled by that powerful and determined Scottish midfield. However, a 0-0 draw is not good enough for Scotland and at some point they will need to come out a bit, at which point the focus turns to their strong left side where Andrew Robertson is supported by Kieran Tierney.

Perisic is expected to sit high up the park as Croatia's most dangerous player, which potentially will leave space for Robertson and Tierney to double up on right-back Sime Vrsaljko in rare counter-attacking situations. It won't be a classic game, but Scotland have the firepower to nick it.

Mbappe-led counters an issue for Pepe

Portugal v France
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BBC One

Portugal aren't at their best when asked to dominate possession and probe for gaps, largely because Cristiano Ronaldo is not suited to playing in a crowded penalty area and Diogo Jota is better on the counter-attack. Both Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva struggled to get into the game against Hungary, who held 30% possession and kept the score at 0-0 until the 84th minute.

France are not ideal opponents, then. Didier Deschamps likes to hold the opposition at arms' length by sitting back and luring the other team forward, before hitting on the counter-attack via the excellent combinations between Paul Pogba and Kylian Mbappe. These two will be crucial as ever, with Mbappe expecting plenty of joy on the break against the 38-year-old Pepe.

At the other end, the pressure on Fernandes to create should make it fairly simple for N'Golo Kante to track the Manchester United playmaker and keep him quiet, while Raphael Varane knows all about Ronaldo. This game should follow a similar pattern to France's 1-0 win over Germany: a strangely subdued match, with the French getting the three points despite playing in third gear.

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