Portugal v Spain, Wednesday 7:45, BBC1.
Match odds: Spain 4.67/2, Spain 2.0421/20, The Draw 3.4549/20.
Portgual's clash against Spain is a meeting between neighbouring countries and two fierce rivals - but two very different coaches.
Portugal's Paulo Bento is the youngest coach in the competition and has side playing a primarily defensive style of football. Vicente del Bosque is eighteen years his senior, is a double Champions League winner and won the World Cup two years ago. His side are completely based around the ball.
This is youth against experience, then, and position against possession. But the two sides are not dissimilar in their cautious approach to games. Portugal may have opened up and attacked against Holland, when they needed a win, and the Czech Republic, when they faced a much weaker side who looked to sit deep behind the ball, but this will probably be a more defensive display. Against Germany in the opening game, Portugal effectively played a 4-5-1 formation, saw little of the ball, and tried to play on the counter-attack with Cristiano Ronaldo and Nani.
They may have lost 1-0, but the display wasn't terrible. If that's their approach against a side like Germany, it's likely to be similar against a side of similar quality like Spain. Bento's side might play slightly higher up and look to hold onto the ball more - that's less dangerous against Spain than against Germany, who are better on the counter-attack.
Del Bosque's approach will be the same as always - relentless ball retention in the early stages, hoping to tire the opposition, before pouncing after half-time. Despite being proactive and keeping the ball, this is actually an excellent defensive tactic. Spain have kept a clean sheet in their last eight knockout ties, an incredible record - so backing them to keep another at 2.285/4 is a very good bet.
The coaches have one major selection decision each, and both involve their primary forward. Bento is without Helder Postiga because of injury, which is a blow to the cohesion of the side, as Portugal had kept the same starting XI for their last six competitive games (four at Euro 2012, plus two in the play-offs against Bosnia). Hugo Almeida will almost certainly start - young Benfica forward Nelson Oliveira is another option, but he's much more likely to come off the bench and replace Almeida, probably around the hour mark.
Del Bosque's decision is upfront - where he could continue playing with Cesc Fabregas as a 'false nine', or use the more natural option in Fernando Torres. Although Spain started off playing poorly against Italy with no true striker, their movement, directness and penetration was much more impressive against France. Against the physical centre-back duo of Bruno Alves and Pepe, it's difficult to see a case for playing Torres. Fabregas' cleverer, more intricate link-up play might be better. Alvaro Negredo or Fernando Llorente are other options - and del Bosque will remember that Llorente had a great impact as a substitute against Portugal two years ago in South Africa.
The key battle is clearly Cristiano Ronaldo against Alvaro Arbeloa. Ronaldo has had problems tracking his man in this competition, particularly against Denmark, and Portugal's four goals conceded have all come from that flank. Arbeloa isn't having a great tournament, but it was interesting to see how high he pushed past Franck Ribery in Spain's quarter-final, constantly motoring into space on the overlap. If he does that tonight, it could cause Portugal real problems if Ronaldo doesn't track back. Of course, it means Ronaldo would be free on the counter-attack, but Sergio Busquets can move over to cover, safe in the knowledge Portugal lack a proper number ten.
Of course, Arbeloa knows Ronaldo from Real Madrid - while the two centre-backs also know him well, Sergio Ramos from Real, and Gerard Pique from their days together at Manchester United.
I think this game will be slow to get going, and I wonder whether Portugal will be able to break out from their shell if they go 1-0 down. Their substitutions so far have been effective, with Almeida joined by fellow supersub Silvestre Varela - but Spain are just so good at keeping the ball when ahead in matches, and opponents who start matches sitting deep find it difficult to change to a pressing game.
In keeping with Spain's pattern of being underwhelming before half-time, then stepping it up in the second half, I'll back Draw/Spain in Half Time/Full Time at 5.14/1.
Recommended Bets
Spain to keep a clean sheet at 2.285/4
Draw / Spain in Half Time / Full Time at 5.14/1