Euro 2012 11am Bulletin: How best to take on Spain

Spain are through to the quarter-finals of Euro 2012. They finished with seven points, courtesy of a 1-1 draw against Italy first up, followed by the performance of the tournament so far in demolishing Ireland 4-0 and finished off with a 1-0 win over Croatia that left conspiracy theorists disappointed and sent Croatia crashing out. But how convincing have Spain actually been?

As good as they were against Ireland, they could easily have lost to Italy and on another day could have been defeated by Croatia too, which would have seen Spain go home. There's no doubting they can keep possession like no other team at the tournament and can be rivalled only by Germany in terms of the options they can bring off the bench. Yesterday's goalscorer Jesus Navas would get into most international sides, Fernando Llorente is apparently a £30m target for Manchester City and then of course there's Cesc Fabregas, already flagged up as a potential Top 4 goalscorer in this column. He seems like a good bloke, our Cesc. A real team man. But even he must be wondering what he's got to do to finally secure a starting place in this XI. He's the team's joint top-scorer with two goals, the same number as Fernando Torres, who missed a couple of easy chances against Italy, was superb against Ireland and then a little lacklustre again yesterday against Croatia.

There's enough evidence to suggest that it should be Germany who are favourites for this touranment , not Spain. Unlike Vicente Del Bosque's team, Germany have never looked like losing a match, they've arguably beaten better teams and (assuming its' France or England Spain will meet in the quarter-finals) they have an easier match in the next round where they face Greece. Having taken a harsh stance towards Greece's management of their finances, Germany don't seem like they're going to be any less lenient on the football pitch. The market agrees, making Jogi Low's side just 1.162/13 to progress.

That said, the Xavis, Iniestas and Casillas have seen it all before. They've played the big semi-finals and finals and they've come out on top. They know what it takes to get over the line. And for that reason they deserve our respect. So rather than lay Spain at 3.39/4 for the tournament, let's see how else we can take them on. The market for us might be the "Team Scoring Most Goals" one. Spain have six goals so far in this tournament and Germany have five, the same as Portugal. Italy have four, Greece have three, the Czech Republic just three. Likely quarter-finalists France have three, England have four and both still have a game to play tonight.

By taking on Spain in this market, we get two bites of the cherry. It's not inconceivable that England or France can take Spain out in the quarters. But even if Spain do make it all the way to the final, their wins in 2008 and 2010 suggest they will be slightly laboured performances in getting there. A 1-0 win perhaps, a winner in extra-time after a 0-0 draw in regular time. Spain close out matches by keeping possession. But Germany do so by continuing to attack, by forcing their opponents back, rather than letting them have a go at what might be yet prove to be a vulnerable German defence. The Spain v Germany final is on the cards, very much so, but everything points to Germany scoring more goals in getting there. Low's team look a bet in this market at 3.259/4 but the option to lay Spain at around 3.02/1 looks the better call.