Euro 2012 11am Bulletin: Go against the flow

One of the most fashionable expressions of recent times in football is to talk about a team being "hard to beat".

I know perfectly well what it means. It refers to a team who is organised, disciplined, resilient and doesn't give you an inch. You'll have to work hard to score goals against them and even harder to actually win the game. For much of the Premier League campaign Manchester United were described as "hard to beat", as were Chelsea in the latter stages of the Champions League and the likes of Greece at Euro 2012.

But it's a ridiculous expression and one I hate. It makes no sense. Surely Spain, a side who keep possession for spells of two or three minutes at a time and for 65% of more of most matches are the ones who are really hard to beat. They haven't lost a game in 17 matches. That's how hard to beat they are.

Surely Germany are pretty hard to beat. They're the only side to have won all four matches at Euro 2012 and fielded three 'reserves' in their last match, which they ended up winning 4-2 (it could have been 7-1 on another day). They sound pretty hard to beat to me.

But if we just accept the original definition for a second then it's fair to say that both England and Italy are good examples of that most dreadful of expressions.

Italy's defence isn't quite up to the same standard of that of yesteryear. There isn't a Baresi, Gentile, Maldini, Nesta, Costacurta or Cannavaro in there. Giorgio Chiellini is probably their best defender and he's out injured for this one. But the emphasis on defending well and the premium placed on keeping a clean sheet is definitely there. As is the tendency to defend what they have if they get the first goal.

As for England, it's fair to say that their starting XI is the only one of all the quarter-finalists who doesn't feature a 'flair' player. Sure, Wayne Rooney can produce moments of brilliance but that's because he's in many ways a complete player: strong, a little bit of pace, a good finisher, a decent crosser, a bit of skill. He's very good at many things although arguably not world-class at any. But the James Milners, Scott Parkers and Steven Gerrard certainly aren't flair players. Ashley Young is probably the closest they have to one but he's been England's worst performing player at the tournament, is carrying an injury and, as highlighted by Lee Dixon, has struggled with defensive duties on that left wing. He may not even start tonight.

That's not a criticism of Roy Hodgson. He knows the skills and qualities of the players at his disposal and has picked an XI and a system that he thinks gives him the best chance of going as far as in this tournament as he can. So far he's done pretty well.

So both these teams are "hard to beat". They will cancel each other out, 0-0 or 1-1 is on the cards, it won't be great to watch and we'll probably need penalties to find a winner. That seems to be the view taken by most, including pretty much everyone on this website.

But football thankfully doesn't always pan out the way we expect it to. In their 3-2 win over Sweden England proved they can be vulnerable at the back and score goals when they're under the cosh. As for Italy, they've looked a little shaky at the back in all three matches to date yet have Mario Balotelli, Antonio Cassano, Toto di Natale and the free-kick threats of Andrea Pirlo at their disposal. Go with the tide if you like, follow the crowd, follow the money and go for a low-scoring draw. But I think over 2.5 goals looks far too big at 2.8615/8.