Quarter-Final Opta Stats: England v Italy with the potential to get dirty

Jamie Pacheco
21 June 2012

Not putting up with any nonsense. Pedro Proenca of Portugal is one of the strictest referees around.

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Armed with Opta stats on the tournament referees and the disciplinary records of the last eight teams standing, Jamie Pacheco works out which of the quarter-finals should be clean affairs and which have the potential to keep the man in charge pretty busy.

"The potential for an ill-tempered affair comes in the form of England v Italy. There have been a few cynical fouls in Italy’s three group matches, this crop of 2012 somewhat playing to the stereotype."

No-one wants to see one of Euro 2012's quarter-finals decided by an early sending off. Nor do we wish to see a blatant sending-off offence going unpunished. If the team we support doesn't go on to win the tournament then we at least want it to be won by a team who at least deserves to be champions. Or at least that's how most of us feel.

And we can't ignore the fact that the man in the middle will probably have a vital part in the outcome of all four matches. We sometimes forget that referees are after all humans, not robots, and therefore there are certainly trends in terms of how they react to offences. Armed with Opta stats on the men in black and the teams who are in the last eight, let's try and work out what sort of card count we'll get for each game.

Opta tell us that on paper Howard Webb is the most lenient referee at the tournament, with just three cards shown in two matches officiated. Those who watch Webb in charge week-in-week out in the Premier League can vouch for the fact that he is an excellent referee and a sensible one, who wants to be involved in the match as little as possible. But his patience isn't endless. In the final of the 2010 World Cup he famously showed 14 bookings and one red (after 120 minutes) as Netherlands and Spain went into battle in more ways than one. Webb will be in charge of Czech Republic v Portugal, with the Czechs the third (6 cards) and Portugal fifth (5) 'dirtiest' teams at the tournament of the eight quarter-finalists. The last time they met was at Euro 2008, Portugal coming out 3-1 winners in a match that had just two bookings. So there doesn't seem to be bad blood between these two. With Mr Sensible Howard Webb in charge there's no reason why things should get out of hand and 6-8 points (three or four bookings) looks the call at around 2.915/8.

If Greece don't worry too much about entertaining, their attitude towards fouling and other bookable offences is similar. They have so far picked up eight yellow cards, one of which was the second shown to Sokratis Papastathopoulos, which led to the first dismissal of the tournament, albeit a slightly harsh one. Their opponents Germany are the cleanest team of the tournament with just three cards received, two of which were shown to Jerome Boateng, albeit not in the same match. Damir Skomina, who has shown seven yellows in two matches, will be in charge. If this match goes to form, Greece should pick up roughly three cards and Germany probably one. Assuming the match also goes to form in terms of the outcome and the favourites win, Germany won't want players accumulating bookings and missing matches later on. It's hard to make a case for a particular number of bookings but we can be pretty confident that Greece (1.5) will come out on top in the bookings match bet market, if not the match.

Another clean game looks to be Spain v France. Some would argue that in Spain's case, it's hard to pick up bookings when you have the ball all the time. The world and European champions picked up five bookings in their group matches, France just four. With Nicola Rizzioli in charge, the second most lenient referee according to Opta (just five yellows in two matches) this looks to be another where three or four bookings looks about right at around 3.02/1.

The potential for an ill-tempered affair comes in the form of England v Italy. There have been a few cynical fouls in Italy's three group matches, this crop of 2012 somewhat playing to the stereotype.

They are the second dirtiest team with nine yellows while England have picked up five bookings. There's also the potential for a high number of cards because the market suggests this will be the closest of the four quarter-finals and I always think that it's the close games that generally produce the most bookings. In a somewhat one-sided affair the team in control doesn't want to do anything silly that could lead to a suspension in the next match and the team trailing doesn't want to add insult to injury by getting players needlessly booked or dismissed in a lost cause. Of course frustration occasionally boils over, as it did for Ireland's Keith Andrews, but it rarely happens at this level.

In charge is Pedro Proenca. The Portuguese official is highly rated by UEFA; he was after all the man chosen to be in charge of the 2012 Champions League final. In that match he only booked three players but then again, that was solely because the players never gave him a chance to get those cards out. In the seven Champions League/internationals he refereed in, five had five bookings or more and he showed two reds. This is the game with the real potential for cards so a sending off at around 4.03/1 and 9 points and above at around 1.910/11 both look worthy of investment.

Back 6-8 points in the bookings odds market @ 2.915/8
Back Greece in the bookings match bet against Germany @ 1.51/2
Back 6-8 points in Spain v France @ 3.02/1
Back a sending off in England v Italy @ 4.03/1
Back 9 points and above in England v Italy @ 1.910/11