Euro 2012 Opta Stats: Penalties for England and Italy?

Group runners-up
Any French fans cursing their side's shock 2-0 defeat to Sweden to concede top spot in Group D and set them off on a collision course with holders Spain may be heartened to learn that four of the last six European Championship winners failed to top their group. Portugal are rated the most likely of the four runners-up to triumph at 8.615/2, followed by Italy at 10.09/1, France at 13.525/2 and Greece at a massive 60.059/1. Greece finished second in Group A in the 2004 edition when they stunned everyone.

Over/under 2.5 goals
The only two qualifiers whose group stage games averaged three goals were Czech Republic and Portugal, who meet in the first quarter-final on Thursday, which is a meaty 2.285/4 to feature over 2.5 goals. The nations' three combined quarter-finals at the last two European Championships cleared that barrier comfortably: Portugal drawing 2-2 with England at Euro 2004 and losing 3-2 to Germany at Euro 2008 and Czech Republic breezing past Denmark 3-0 at Euro 2004. Two of the other quarter-finals pair two teams who have both been averaging under 2.5 goals: Germany and Greece - 2.01/1 to maintain the trend - and Spain and France 1.68/13.

Penalty shootouts
Opta have compiled the historic European Championship draw percentage of all eight Euro 2012 survivors in an attempt to ascertain which countries are most likely to encounter the horror of the penalty shootout. Italy lead the spoil-sharing league by some distance, with 14 of their 30 matches ending level for a frequency of 46.7%, including their two toughest in this instalment against Spain and Croatia. The presence of England at second on the list with 30.8% suggests that 3.185/40 on Sunday's showdown being draw is worth taking in a match that Italy are 10.09/1 to win on penalties. The Three Lions are 10.519/2 to enjoy their second Euro shootout success, the first having come against Spain at this stage at Euro 1996.

Click here to check out more Opta Euro 2012 stats