Euro 2012 Opta Stats: England to endure a nervy finish

England are winless against European Championship hosts throughout the history of the finals with two defeats (against Italy in 1980 and Sweden in 1992) and a draw (against Portugal in 2004)
And of course given that the draw with Portugal led to a penalty shootout defeat, it can be stated that every England clash with a host nation in this tournament's history has ultimately led to their elimination, a worrying trend given that a Ukraine victory will send them home. They are unbeaten in four fixtures under Roy Hodgson though, and have the best shot conversion rate at Euro 2012, so should do enough to get the point that they need.

The Three Lions have only conceded two goals in four previous games against Ukraine
England shunned the stereotype of Hodgson sides as well-drilled defensive units by allowing Sweden two pretty poor goals in the second half of their last match. However, for all the panic that created, they have historically succeeded at stifling Ukraine and their all-time top scorer Andriy Shevchenko. Whereas they were more adventurous against Sweden having identified that as the tie that they had to win, a draw will be enough here so the safety-first approach employed against France may be restored, with under 2.5 goals the likely result.

Wayne Rooney scored four goals in four games in his only previous participation at the European Championship, back in 2004
A more cautious strategy isn't all that will be restored in Donetsk, with Rooney set to return to the team under the pressure of knowing that if England exit after he replaces either Danny Welbeck or, as is widely expected, Andy Carroll, he is the obvious scapegoat. He has spoken of his desperation to make amends for poor showing at the last two World Cups though and enters this decider not just as the freshest man on either side but boosted by his best ever season of scoring at club level.

Recommended Bets:
Back the draw @ 3.412/5
Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.9310/11
Back Rooney to score @ 2.942/1

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