Sweden v England: Three Lions could be tamed in Kiev

Dave Farrar
14 June 2012

Joe Hart could concede against Sweden's buccaneering attack

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There aren't many clues to go on following England's 1-1 with France but more ambition from Roy Hodgson's mean is vital and that could let the Swedes in for an upset, says Dave Farrar

"England managed just one effort on target in that opening game, and they were the only team whose strikers failed to manage an effort at goal in their first match."

Lay England @ 2.26/5

Sweden v England: 19:45, live on BBC.
Match Odds: Sweden 3.8514/5, England 2.226/5, Draw 3.412/5

There's no question that Sweden provided the more entertaining opening to their Euro 2012 campaign, going down fighting in a curious opener against Ukraine, but England will be far happier with their start after performing pragmatically against France.

I felt that the satisfied mood of England fans was entirely justified: holding Laurent Blanc's side is no mean feat, and to those who ask the question: "what will happen when they face a quality side?" the simple reply is that they already have, and drew 1-1.

Having watched a clueless England implode against Germany in the last World Cup, we really can't complain at Roy Hodgson's approach: it was sensible, and for the first time in a long time, a set of England players went onto the pitch and looked like they knew what their jobs were.

However, while those tactics were fine against a talented French team, they won't wash against the Swedes. Sweden's strengths and weaknesses are there for all to see, and were evident in their opening match. They're dangerous going forward, and look very weak defensively. They've become a team well worth following in the "Both teams to score" market as a result, and they're a team that England can beat if they show more ambition. That won't be hard.

England managed just one effort on target in that opening game, and they were the only team whose strikers failed to manage an effort at goal in their first match. Those OPTA stats are damning, as is the one which tells us that England managed the lowest percentage of passes in the opposition half of any of the teams in the first round. That means that, yes folks, Roy Hodgson's England were duller than Greece.

Match Odds
The difficulty surrounding this game in my eyes is that any bet is based on how Hodgson is likely to approach things. Will he encourage his players to get at a vulnerable Sweden, or will he employ the same tactics and give the Swedes a chance to play their buccaneering style without fear of consequence.

I suspect that the answer will lie somewhere in between those poles, and that brings the draw into play. That outcome is currently priced at 3.412/5, with England 2.226/5 and Sweden a mightily tempting 3.8514/5. On the basis that England are too short, I think that England are a lay at that price.

Both Teams to Score
Given both teams' vulnerability, "Both teams to score" at 1.981/1 also looks like value. I'll be honest, though.

I make both Sweden v England and Ukraine v France very difficult to call, and will be keeping stakes low: there'll be better opportunities over the next few days.

Best Bet
Lay England @ 2.26/5

Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.981/1

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