Spain v Rep of Ireland: Holders have goals worries

Spain v Rep of Ireland, 19:45 KO, Live on BBC1, Match Odds: Spain 1.27, Rep of Ireland 16.0, The Draw 6.2.

Match Odds

Most bettors would predict a comfortable victory for the reigning European champions, and it's anything but a surprise to see the market agrees with them. Spain's price of 1.271/4 will put off plenty of people but on the evidence of the group's opening games it's difficult to see anything other than a victory for Vicente del Bosque's side.

The Spanish may have been a little more sluggish than expected against Italy (1-1) but it was the Republic of Ireland's defending against Croatia that will have set alarm bells ringing (you can see some analysis of that defeat here). Giovanni Trapattoni's side handled aerial balls into the box poorly and also struggled against some of Croatia's clever movement in attacking areas, so Spain ought to find more time and space in and around the penalty area than they did against the Azzurri.

If the 1.271/4 on Spain is too short then leave this market alone rather than having a speculative bet on the Irish or the draw.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

It's a must-win game for both teams so it's likely there will be chances at both ends, especially if the Republic concede an early goal as they did against Croatia. The second round of games at a major tournament have a do-or-die element to them so teams are liable to shake off the shackles and have a real go at one another.

Some bettors say the over goals market depends not so much on the quality of the attacks, but the defences. On that front there is every reason to believe this will be a high-scoring game. The Republic produced one of the most unconvincing defensive performances of the tournament so far against Croatia, and Spain looked fragile without the leadership skills of Carles Puyol against Italy.

But my feeling is the Republic will work doubly hard to be defensively resolute, at least in the first-half. And I still have reservations about Spain's goalscoring ability without David Villa, who scored 45% of their goals on route to Euro 2008 and World Cup glory. Their collection of little midfielders lack proficiency in front of goal, and against Italy it was obvious Fernando Torres' demons continue to haunt his career.

For these reasons, I'd rather be on unders at 2.1211/10 than overs at 1.875/6.

Corners Over/Under 10.5

The corners bet you'd really like to have is Spain in a Corners Match Bet - Spain had seven corners to Italy's two in their opening game while the Republic were defeated 7-1 on corners by Croatia - but the price of 1.11/10 on Spain will be too short for most.

Instead, have a look at backing under 10.5 corners at a good price. Both of Group C's opening games featured under 10.5, as have seven of the tournament's 10 games at the time of writing. Statistically, the price looks very good at around 1.910/11.

Correct Score

If you look back at the Over/Under 2.5 Goals section above you'll see I'm expecting a fairly low-scoring contest. With that in mind, Spain 1-0 and 2-0 at 7.26/1 and 6.411/2 respectively would be my selections in the correct score market. It's worth noting Iker Casillas made five saves against Italy in Spain's opening game, and Spain have kept eight clean sheets in their last 12 meetings against the Republic of Ireland (courtesy of Opta).

Best Bet
Spain v Rep of Ireland under 10.5 corners @ 1.855/6
Other Recommended Bet
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.1211/10

James Eastham has picked seven out of eight winning selections on Euro 2012 so far from his best bets. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham

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