Spain v France: Champions could be frustrated by 'safety first' French

Having struggled a little in their 1-1 draw with Italy in their opening game of Euro 2012, the World and European champions Spain face their second supposedly top-class test of the tournament, and there's a question about the state of mind of the French players going into the match. There are stories of a huge row in the squad after that insipid performance against Sweden, and if France are anything but fully tuned up for this game then they could be in for a beating. Laurent Blanc's right hand man Alain Boghossian has said that the row was the kind of thing that happens "between a couple" and that we shouldn't read anything into it. You can see Les Bleus' "Mr Charisma" explaining what he means here.

Even if you believe that France haven't "done a Holland", remember that Spain may have been a little off key in the tournament so far, but they're still a high-class side, and could be just a step or two away from producing the kind of special performances that won them both Euro 2008 and World Cup 2010. It's worth recalling that, since they lost 1-0 against Switzerland in their first match in South Africa, Spain have won 16 of 17 competitive matches. You write them off at your peril, and the 1.855/6 available on Betfair for them to win in 90 minutes looks enticing.

A lot of people, though, have made much of the fact that there hasn't yet been a 0-0 draw at this tournament, and that England against Italy has that result written all over it. I don't agree.

I don't think that match will be high scoring, but THIS is the game that has a huge chance of finishing 0-0. It reminds me a lot of the Spain v Italy quarter-final at Euro 2008, when the Italians were able to frustrate Spain for large periods, and keep them down to minimal chances. Spain managed to win on penalties that day, and we could face something similar here.

Blanc will be wary of Spain's ability to pass their way through his team, and in the absence of Phillippe Mexes, may even decide to start with two holding midfielders in the shape of Alou Diarra and Yann M'Vila. France do possess quality in forward areas, but I think that it will be safety first for them here, and that they'll set out to stifle.

Spain have won just one of their last nine previous European Championship or World Cup quarter finals outright, with four of those ending in penalty shootouts, and the Qualifying Method market is interesting in that regard. Both teams are available at 13.012/1 to win on penalties, and that's a good bet to have on your side whether you decide to trade or not.

The oft quoted statistic that 21 of the last 29 knockout matches at the Euros have gone under 2.5 goals comes into play here, and I think that's the likeliest outcome, but am not interested in a price as short as 1.618/13, nor indeed in under 1.5 goals at 2.8615/8. I want the 0-0 draw in my portfolio at 8.615/2, with a saver on 1-1 at 7.613/2.

Best Bet
Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 8.615/2

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to win on penalties in the "Qualifying Method" Market @ 13.012/1