Germany v Greece: Bruised favourites to advance

Kick-Off: 19:45
Live On: BBC

Match Odds

After the completion of the group stages, Germany might not have been imperious, but the market still thinks they will make it to the final of Euro 2012. Joachim Low's team are 1.162/13 to make the last four and 1.402/5 to beat Greece in 90 minutes.

Greece actually have one more clean sheet than they did at this stage of Euro 2004, but it was only against Russia that their defensive performance looked anything like strong enough to stop Germany.

The slinkiness of Ozil, Muller's marauding, Podolski's energy and the increasingly confident finishing of Gomez make the Germans a potent attacking force. They have scored twice or more in 11/13 qualifiers and group-stage games, and even a solid display from Fernando Santos' defenders might not keep them out entirely.

If Greece do concede, they will struggle to keep up with their opponents. They got here with only 14 goals from ten games and have found the back of the net only once in each of their group matches. Knock-out matches tend to be tight and the draw might appeal at 5.39/2 but, with Greece missing captain Karagounis through suspension, it's hard to oppose the favourites.

Germany Win to Nil

Clean sheets have been few and far between at Euro 2012, but Germany have claimed one of them. Shorn of Arne Friedrich, Per Mertesacker and their ilk, Low seems to have his best defence yet and Greece's attacking limitations - they're short on both ambition and quality - make the Germany Win to Nil market a good option for those in search of a way to back the favourites at an odds-against price.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Euro 2012 has reached the stage where there's no way back from a defeat. There are no draws either, so mistakes are costlier and teams tend to play like they know it. Since the European Championships opened its doors to 16 teams in England in 1996, 20/28 knockout games have finished with Under 2.5 Goals, which is 2.021/1 for this match.

It's rare for a knockout match at the Euros to have as strong a favourite as Germany are here, however. This makes our game untypical and it might be wise to look elsewhere for a form guide.

Unfortunately, thirteen of Germany's last 16 competitive games have actually produced three goals or more and the pattern jars with Santos' results for Greece, who have seen 9/13 since the start of qualifying stay under 2.5 goals.

Correct Score

Germany scored an average of more than three goals a game in qualifying. They also found the back of the net five times in a difficult Group B and, recalling their performances in the last World Cup, it is worth considering Any Unquoted at 6.411/2 in the Correct Score market.

In South Africa a couple of years ago, Low's team scored four times in three of their four wins as lethally fast counter-attacks left Frank Lampard and others running through treacle. If Greece go behind in, say, the first half, they will be forced to come and out play, leaving space at the back for Muller, Podolski and the rest.

The German counter-attack is unarguably more devastating than the Greek attack, but Any Unquoted pays out if either team scores four goals or more. In the event that it's the Greeks who hit four, we could probably not call ourselves prescient, however - just lucky.

Bookings Match Bet

Greece are joint top of the bookings chart, picking up an average of three a game through the group stages. Germany are second bottom, with just three yellows in total from their three matches.

Santos feels the referees have been against his team in this tournament and the stat showing they have committed a mere 38 fouls for their nine yellows might back him up. The Germans are set to dominate possession and, if you've got the ball, you're unlikely to be fouling the opposition.

Corners Match Bet

The headline statistic for our other recommended bet is this: Germany (ten in three matches) won only one more corner than Greece in the group stages.

Both teams have lost the Corners Match Bet in each of their three games at Euro 2012 so far, which suggests Germany, heavy favourites to win this particular statistical battle, are worth opposing.

Low's team had more of the ball against Portugal and Denmark, but earned only five corners while conceding 16. Although Greece lack the expansive wingers of those teams, they restricted Poland and Czech Republic to four corners apiece and only Russia, who had more than 60% possession, thrashed them in this category.

Even if Santos' men can't stop Germany's march to the semi-finals, perhaps they can narrow the route they must take to get there.

Best Bet: Back Germany Win to Nil @ 2.111/10
Other Recommended Bet: Back Greece @ 1.501/2 in Bookings Match Bet