Czech Republic v Poland: Hosts to make winning move

Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Live On: BBC

Match Odds

Poland must beat the Czech Republic if they are to avoid the disappointment of a group-stage exit on home turf. A draw would make history - no team has ever drawn all three of its group games at a European Championship - but it would eliminate them, and possibly the Czechs too.

Opta cheerily report that the Poles have won their last six home games with the Czech Republic and the market makes them 2.285/4 favourites to get the result they want on Saturday.

Franciszek Smuda has injury concerns about central defender Damien Perquis and midfielders Dariusz Dudka and Eugen Polanski. Any absences will raise doubts about the home team's ability to control the game, but so long as their stellar trio from Borussia Dortmund - Piszczek and Blaszczykowski on the right, Lewandowski upfront - are fit and focused, there is hope.

Tomas Rosicky and Petr Cech should both be fit for the Czechs, but the Chelsea 'keeper is has hardly been a reassuring figure between the sticks for his international team-mates. He has faced six shots on targets in Poland and let five of them in.

The difference between Lewandowski and Milan Baros, whose continued presence in Czech team must be a worry for their fans, could make the difference between the two teams and Poland look a decent bet at 2.35/4 to get the result they - and the tournament - need.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

History suggests there's a bit of value about the 2.0621/20 available for Over 2.5 Goals in Wroclaw this weekend. The last round of the group stage tends to feature the most high-scoring games of European Championships. With teams forced to stop settling for draws and go all out for three points, 28/48 final group matches since Euro 1980 have produced at least three goals.

Poland, certainly, are in the position of having to chase a win and, reviewing Group A's earlier games, you might come to the same conclusion about there being a few goals on Saturday. Both sides are more confident in attack than defence - and rightly so. Young Pekhart is no more dynamic than Baros, if the Czechs are thinking about a change upfront, but the value lies on the high side of the 2.5-goal line.

Both Teams to Score?

Backing both teams to score has been the right thing to do in 11/14 games at Euro 2012 so far. In particular, the 1-1 draw has been prominent, coming up five times already. Although a draw is not ideal for either team in this match, backing them both to score at 1.9010/11 is a security blanket that covers the 1-1 outcome.

Shown a Card?

Poland's major point of attack is the right-hand side, where clubmates Piszczek and Blaszczykowski work well together. The home side's strength dovetails nicely with a possible problem area for the Czechs. Michel Kadlec started at left-back against Russia and struggled. He was moved inside to centre-half, making room for David Limbersky to play against Greece. Limbersky did OK against limited opposition, but a lack of international experience - he's 28, but has been capped only eight times - suggests he might find his job more difficult against Poland. Limbersky should become available at 3.55/2 to see yellow at some point.

Best Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.910/11
Other Recommended Bet: Back Poland @ 2.35/4 to win

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