Euro 2012 Betting: England's price continues to be an anomaly

If you've been monitoring prices on Betfair over the years you'll have noticed that the winner market on a major event is as good a barometer as any of where a team or individual lies in the hierarchy of their sport.

So when Roger Federer was beaten by Rafael Nadal in five sets at Wimbledon the Swiss went from odds-on favourite the following year to odds-against jolly, from invincible to still being the man to beat.

Betfair prices have also been a good measure of where the Australian team are in the cricketing world. Two things happened to the Aussies between 2005 and 2008. First they lost the Ashes and then, little-by-little, they lost (to international retirement) the men who had made them arguably the greatest team in cricket history in the first place. Warne, McGrath, Martyn, Gillespie, Gilchrist, Hayden, Symonds...the list goes on. And the Betfair markets took note. Whether it was in a Test match, a one-off ODI or a World Cup, the market still gave them respect but the layers thought that in the right circumstances, they were worth taking on - and eased their prices accordingly.

Tiger Woods was no different. First there was the knee, then a loss of form, then the scandal that rocked the sporting world. The man who went into Majors at 3/1 or lower throughout most of the 'noughties' was now three times that price at the off. If you wanted to take that price on Woods based on what he had done, rather than what he was likely to do over the next four days, you were welcome to it. "You like McIlroy? So do we. You can have 5/1", the layers said. They knew the golf hierarchy had changed and they acted accordingly.

But for some reason when it comes to a football World Cup or European Championships, the Betfair market refuses to change with the times. It wants to stay still. How else can we explain why England are once again fifth favourites to win the thing? It was a similar story at the 2010 World Cup. And in 2006. and 2004 and so on.

Disastrous 2010 World Cup - that's all in the past. New manager who will only have been in charge for two matches when they face France? New broom is a good broom. Best player Wayne Rooney suspended for the first two games? Big Andy Carroll will come good. Former captain is despised by a handful of players within the dressing room? JT is still the best defender we have. It's fascinating, but why exactly does it happen?

The first obvious answer is patriotic money. English punters backing their team to do well because they want them to do well, not because they think they will. But how relevant is that in the days when the likes of Betfair have customers from all over the world? Don't Spanish and Portuguese customers rush to back their own teams as well? Maybe they don't. Maybe they're less patriotic.

Is it that the Premier League is the most widely screened league in the world and that armchair viewers see more of the skills of Steven Gerrard, Theo Walcott and Ashley Cole than they do of Xavi, Toni Muller and Giorgio Chiellini?

Is it that Chelsea just won the Champions League? If it is, let's be honest, it was hardly a core of English players who performed the heroics. Cole was good granted, Gary Cahill had a decent game and Frank Lampard put away his penalty well enough but that's three from 11 in the starting line-up and it was more the likes of Didier Drogba and Petr Cech who turned defeat into victory.

In any case, it's not our place to question so much as it is to profit from this ongoing anomaly. We're aware that 13.012/1 isn't the sort of price that most people would want to lay so let's look at alternatives. The fact that England are overrated in the winner market means that's also the case in other markets and the price on France to beat England first up is a good one at 2.747/4. They have a manager who has been in the job for two years, far more creativity throughout the side and a better record in recent tournaments. They also beat England 2-1 at Wembley a couple of years ago.

And secondly, I'm inclined to agree with Lee Dixon. England are good enough to get out of a weak group but not good enough to beat the likes of Spain or Italy, their most likely opponents in the quarter-finals. Another quarter-final exit beckons, at 3.185/40.

Back France to beat England @ 2.747/4
Back Quarter-Final exit in the stage of elimination market @ 3.185/40