Euro 2012 Betting: The importance of being Cesc Fabregas

There were two pieces of bad news last week for anyone looking for reasons
to lay Spain to win Euro 2012, at 3.711/4, this summer. First, in the press conference before Spain thrashed Venezuela 5-0, (a game in which they missed a penalty and probably played their best football under Vicente del Bosque) the coach said that David Villa, currently out with a broken leg, expects to be fit in time for the tournament.

Then, the man who was effectively called in to replace Fernando Torres in the squad, Roberto Soldado, came on as a second-half substitute and managed to score a hat-trick, even though it was he who missed the spot-kick. David Silva and Andres Iniesta scored the others; Xavi did not even play; and Jordi Alba made the problematic left-back position his own.

Spain did not score many goals on their way to winning the 2010 World Cup (eight in seven games, with all four knockout matches ending 1-0) although they did at Euro 2008 (13 in seven). This time around, their first two matches are against strong defensive sides in Italy and Ireland, but with Croatia and a possible quarter-final against a team from Group D to follow, the goals could come ­ and with Spain, they come from anywhere.

One particular player who is enjoying an outstanding season could be a big value bet in the Top Goalscorer market ­ even though he's not even guaranteed a place in the starting eleven at the moment. That's partly what makes Cesc Fabregas so impressive: he is vital to Spanish hopes, despite being their number 12 in many ways. The reason? He can replace any of the team's front five players: as a natural central midfielder, a wide player, a striker, or even as a 'false number nine', making runs into the box and scoring (often even with his head). And these runs are something he's done remarkably well at Barcelona this season, scoring 15 and assisting 16 in his first 35 games.

Fabregas also has an incredible record at international tournaments: he was top scorer and named Player of the Tournament at the 2003 Under-17 World Cup
in Finland, where Spain lost the final to Brazil. One year later, he was
Player of the Tournament in the 2004 European Championships, in which Spain
once again finished runners-up.

He scored his first international goal in Spain's 4-1 Euro 2008 group win over Russia, and then, still only 21, came off the bench to score the winning penalty in the quarter-final shoot-out defeat of Italy. He replaced the injured Villa in the semi-final against Russia and set up two goals in the 3-0 win. It was a similar story at the World Cup: he was superb whenever called upon and it was no surprise that it was his shot that rebounded back to Iniesta for the final's winning goal.

"Cesc is essential for the team and he deserves to be part of the side, but unfortunately only eleven can play," said Del Bosque. And yet the former Arsenal captain never complains, he just plays when he is picked, and always plays well.

The Top Goalscorer market, unsurprisingly, is flush with Spanish strikers. David Villa is (14.527/2) and Soldado is (15.529/2). Fabregas is also there, at (38.037/1), and must be worth considering, given his superb season and fantastic tournament record. The danger in this Spain side is that the goals come from everywhere ­ even from a player who, at the moment, might start on the bench.