The Big Match Tactical View: Spain v Italy

Spain v Italy, Sunday 5:00, ITV 1.

Match odds: Spain 1.84, Italy 5.3, The Draw 3.6.

Ahead of this tournament, 15 of the 16 coaches seemed certain about their starting formation. Most were going with a 4-2-3-1, but there was the occasional 4-3-3 and the odd 4-4-1-1.

The exception was Italy's Cesare Prandelli. He favoured a midfield diamond in Italy's pre-tournament friendlies, but then decided to test a 3-5-2 in training. Many coaches are afraid to experiment with different systems, especially those that move away from a four-man defence, because of the limited time international sides have to perfect positioning.

But it was different for Prandelli; Italian players are constantly drilled in different systems at club level, and 17 of the 20 Serie A clubs used a back three at some point in 2011/12. Besides, Prandelli's main trump card was the fact he was able to field a back three of Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini, who played together in Juventus' Scudetto-winning campaign, a side which also featured the Azzurri number one, Gigi Buffon.

Bonucci's injury seemed to have put that idea to bed, but now Roma midfielder Daniele De Rossi looks set to drop into the three-man defence.

"De Rossi is very convinced he can do this," says Prandelli. "We should wait for the game before making judgement on how he interprets the role, no?" Chiellini is confident it will not be a problem. "De Rossi played his first game as a centre-back against Juventus," he recalls. "And he was the best player on the pitch."

Italy's three-man defence against Spain's system will be fascinating. Three-man defences tend to work better against two-striker formations rather than a system with just one striker like Spain will play. But who will that striker be? Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo are all options. Whoever Vicente del Bosque chooses, Italy will have two spare men at the back, meaning they'll be outnumbered in midfield and on the flanks.

But the situation on the wings will be complex - Spain's wide players don't stay in wide positions. Although del Bosque has direct players like Jesus Navas and Pedro Rodriguez in his squad, he is likely to select David Silva and Andres Iniesta, who will move into the middle. Spain must make sure they stretch Italy by pushing their full-backs high up the pitch, so right-back Alvaro Arbeloa and (in particular) left-back Jordi Alba have a crucial role to play.

But there won't be much width high up the pitch for Spain, and the same can be said of Italy's 3-5-2. Prandelli's system will rely upon two wing-backs to stretch the play - which will be difficult, considering they'll be outnumbered two-versus-one on the flanks. Therefore, I'm not expecting much wing play, so there should be few corners, with both sides holding the ball in the centre of the pitch. 9 or less corners at 2.26/5 is a good back.

In terms the cards market, expect a good-natured game between two attractive sides. If there are cards, it might be because of the 'footballing' aspect of the game rather than nasty tackles. Spain press high up the pitch, and while they generally stay on their feet, there can be physical confrontations.

Italy, on the other hand, aren't particularly quick in midfield, and might be forced into 'cynical' tackles to break up any counter-attacks. Players like Andrea Pirlo and Xabi Alonso will be crucial for the quick tempo of the game and the rapid ball circulation, but might also be in danger of a card.

This could be a slow-burning game. Spain will dominate possession, but with their striker outnumbered upfront, might find penetration difficult. In the last World Cup, their games were goalless at half-time before they pushed on in the second half. That pattern might continue here, and a half-time 0-0 at around 2.89/5 looks good to me.

Recommended bets:
9 or less corners at 2.26/5
A half-time 0-0 at 2.89/5