The Big Match Tactical View: Netherlands v Germany

Netherlands v Germany, Wednesday 7:45, BBC1.

Match odds: Netherlands 3.185/40, Germany 2.546/4, The Draw 3.55/2.

This was always set to be one of the group stage's most exciting matches - but Holland's surprise defeat to Denmark has given the game extra importance. Lose here, and Holland are on the brink of a shock first round exit.

In truth, Holland didn't play poorly in their opening match of the tournament. Wesley Sneijder had a superb match, drifting towards the left of the pitch and creating ten chances for his teammates, more than any other player in the tournament so far. Holland were only let down by their finishing - Robin van Persie's first touch was consistently poor, and he seemed to keep losing his footing. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar only had one opportunity after coming on as a substitute, but he also finished poorly.

Nevertheless, there have been predictable calls for Bert van Marwijk to select Huntelaar from the start for this match. Robin van Persie is unlikely to be dropped, but instead moved to one of the wide positions, probably in place of Ibrahim Afellay. Van Persie and Arjen Robben could play on either flank, and Dirk Kuyt is another option - though van Marwijk briefly used him at right-back in training this week, the same position he ended the Denmark match in.

Van Marwijk's second decision is deeper in midfield. The main debate before the tournament centred around who should be Mark van Bommel's midfield partner - Nigel de Jong, or a more cultured player like PSV's intelligent ball playing midfielder Kevin Strootman, or an even more attacking option like Rafael van der Vaart. Van Marwijk went for de Jong against the Danes, but will be under pressure to play a more attacking midfield against Germany. However, he prefers to play two holding players against strong teams, and I'd be surprised if de Jong was sacrificed.

Germany are in the stronger position in the group, and although Jogi Low's side struggled to make the breakthrough against Portugal on Saturday, there's little reason for Low to change too much about the side. Portugal sat very deep and prevented Germany passing in the final third, but the Dutch will have to be more proactive and compete in midfield. Though Low has some extremely talented ball-playing midfielders, Germany are still excellent at breaking quickly, with instant transitions from defence to attack. It is difficult to envisage major changes to the German side.

The midfield battle should be particularly interesting in this game. Sneijder's influence from a left-of-centre playmaking position cannot be ignored by Low, and I expect Sami Khedira to play a much more disciplined role in this match, having pushed forward with energetic running in the Portugal match. That will make Germany more secure down that side of the pitch, and for the second consecutive game, Jerome Boateng will have an important defensive role, having performed well against Cristiano Ronaldo on Saturday.

Sneijder's positioning towards the left means Germany's left-centre midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger will get a lot of time on the ball - the closest player to him is likely to be his old Bayern midfield partner van Bommel, but Schweinsteiger is quicker and better technically, and I think he'll enjoy this match, able to dictate play from the centre circle.

Of course, that would change if Holland use a more offensive player instead of de Jong. But that seems unlikely, because van Bommel would have to track the fantastic Mesut Ozil, who drifts laterally across the pitch into pockets of space, and looks to create from wide. I can't see van Marwijk wanting that clash - van Bommel doesn't have the legs - so instead de Jong will be told to watch Ozil.

I think this will start in a cagey manner, then become very open - especially in the centre of midfield. Germany will look to close down quickly and Holland might use the aggressive tactics we saw in the World Cup final against Spain. Therefore, looking at the cards market makes sense. Jonas Eriksson - a Swedish millionaire - is in charge here. He rarely shows red cards, but shows on average four yellows per match. Therefore, I'll look to back 6-8 points in the Bookings Odds market, at around 3.39/4.

Recommended bet:

6-8 points in Bookings Odds at 3.39/4