Euro 2012 Betting: Stability boosts Greece's hopes in Group A

If Euro 2012 Group B, which features Germany, Holland, Portugal and Denmark, has been named the Group of Death, then Group A, with Poland, Greece, Russia and Czech Republic, has been nicknamed, harshly, the Group of Dearth. In fact, it promises to be an extremely tight group and while it might not provide the tournament's eventual winner, issues surrounding the four coaches in recent months could impact how the group plays out.

Russia are the (2.546/4) favourites to top the group and looking at the ability of the players in his squad - like goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, captain Andrey Arshavin and Zenit's leading scorer Aleksandr Kerzhakov, who is keeping out Roman Pavlyuchenko - you can see why.

But coach Dick Advocaat, appointed on the back of winning the Uefa Cup with Zenit, has been criticised for sticking with the bulk of the Euro 2008 semi-finalist side, regardless of drops in form, as this article explains. "Everyone is so static, it's like we've gone back in time," complained former Zenit coach Vlastimil Petrzela, who was replaced by Advocaat at the club in 2006, after the qualifying draw against Slovakia.
"Arshavin plays like he is the champion of the world - but he does nothing,
just hoping he would have space to run into."

Former international Yevgeny Lovchev has urged the Dutchman to pick fresher faces: "All we do is look back at the win over Holland [at Euro 2008] and think we can do that again, but we can't," he said.

At least Advocaat was secure during qualifying in his job (for which, France Football revealed today, he is paid €6m per year), which is more than be can be said for Czech Republic boss Michal Bilek. Last August, after the Czechs stumbled to their worst result for 17 years, a 3-0 loss to Norway, the national team's general manager Vladmir Smicer admitted that Bilek was almost fired: "I had to work out if Bilek was the right man for us or not, and it was a very close call," said Smicer.

The move paid off: Bilek's side held Scotland 2-2 to keep second place and saw off Montenegro in qualifying thanks to four Viktoria Plzen players - Milan Petrzela, Vaclav Pilar, Daniel Kolar and Petr Jiracek - he called up. The Czechs are (4.94/1) to top the group, but whatever happens, Bilek will leave after the tournament.

That will also happen to Poland boss Franciszek Smuda, whose side are (4.3100/30) second-favourites to top the group. This price is based on home form and that alone as Smuda's preparations have been peppered with controversies and fall-outs - with Michael Zewłakow and Artur Boruc - as well as suggestions that senior players like Robert Lewandowski and Jakub Blaszczykowski have told him to change the tactics to suit the players. There is no love lost between Smuda and the Polish public and a tough opener against Greece could spell bad news for the hosts, who are (1.9720/21) to win it.

And that brings us onto Greece, (5.69/2) to top Group A and (2.3211/8) to qualify. They are outsiders but I'm not sure why: under coach Fernando Santos, they went on a 17-match unbeaten run and finished ahead of Croatia in qualifying.

Santos managed to do this while experimenting with the system - he flirted with 4-4-2 before reverting to 4-3-3 - and introducing a new generation of players: he used 32 different players in qualifying, with nine debutants, and the team's 14 goals came from 11 different sources. "Greece don't have a Messi, so it is tactics first and quality second, then team spirit, versatility and experience in high-profile matches," Santos explained.

At this level, confidence and momentum makes a big difference, and so does something as intangible as trust in the coach: that's lacking in Poland, and wavering for Russia and the Czechs. In Greece, though, it's as strong as it was under Otto Rehhagel, and we all know what happened to his well-organised outfit in 2004. That might be too much to ask for again, but Greece, who have now qualified for four of the last five major tournaments (the same record as England) should be taken seriously in this group.

Recommended bet: Greece to qualify from Group A @ (2.3211/8)