Germany v Italy: Azzurri set to corner their opponents

James Eastham
27 June 2012

Italy celebrate their dramatic penalty shoot-out win over England

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After picking a fantastic 15 winners out of 20 bets on the tournament so far, James Eastham casts his eye over Thursday night's semi-final.

Italy have won more and conceded fewer corners than Germany at the finals

Lay Germany in a corners match bet @ 1.664/6

Germany v Italy, 19:45 KO, Live on BBC1, Match Odds: Germany 1.9720/21, Italy 4.94/1, The Draw 3.45

Match Odds

I agree with the view that Germany have been the best team in the tournament. They overcame Portugal 1-0, outplayed Holland (2-1) and rode their luck but still won against Denmark (2-1). In the quarter-finals, with what you could call an under-strength Starting XI, they were much better than Greece (4-2). Germany are the only semi-finalist to have won all four games en route to the last four, and Opta point out they go into this match on a 15-game winning run, an all-time German record.

By reaching the semi-finals, Italy have exceeded most people's expectations. A draw is probably the best they can hope for here. That's been the outcome in three of their four matches to date, which merely underlines their lack of quality in front of goal. Whereas Germany have scored freely (tournament top scorers with nine goals) and have several players that can find the net, Italy are altogether more limited in the final third. Antonio Cassano and Mario Balotelli will have to raise their game considerably to give the Azzurri a chance.

That's unlikely to happen, so I'd ignore Italy to win in 90 minutes at 4.94/1. Germany at 1.9720/21 or the draw at 3.45 are both worth considering.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Three of Germany's four games have featured over 2.5 goals, with the average goals-per-game count 3.25. All four of Italy's games have featured under 2.5 goals, with the average goals-per-game count 1.5.

As a result of that fairly even split in scoring form, the prices - 1.684/6 on unders, 2.486/4 on overs - are a minor surprise. To me, the decisive factor will be whether Italy can find the net. Should they do so overs becomes a touch more likely than unders because of Germany's scoring potential, but I'd leave this market alone as it's really a marginal decision.

Corners Match Bet

This is the one market on the game where the prices look 'wrong'. So far at the finals, Italy have won 26 corners to their opponents' 18. Italy have won corners match bets - that is, had more corners than their opponents - in three of four games.

In contrast, Germany have managed fewer corners than the opponents they have faced in the competition so far - 21 to 23. They have won just one corners match bet, and that was against a feeble Greece. They lost to Portugal and Denmark, and tied with Holland (6-6).

So it's surprising to find Germany 1.635/8 favourites to have more corners than Italy. The Azzurri are 3.412/5, with the Tie 8.415/2. My selection would be to lay Germany at 1.664/6, as this means a tie, as well as Italy winning, will net you a profit.

Correct Score

The 1-1 draw 7.613/2 and a 2-1 Germany win 10.09/1 would be my picks in this market for those looking for more speculative odds on the game. I can see Italy finding the net but Germany have the firepower to score at least once, leading me to favour those two scorelines. Remember, all scorelines apply to 90 minutes only

Best Bet
Lay Germany in Corners Match Bet @ 1.664/6
Other Recommended Bet
1-1 and 2-1 scorelines @ 7.613/2 and 10.09/1 respectively

James Eastham has picked 15 out of 20 winners on Euro 2012, making 9.94pts profit from 20pts staked (50% ROI). You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham