Walsall v Chesterfield Tips: Back Mat's Saddlers to finish the job on Friday

• Walsall's defence rediscovered their mojo in first leg 

• BTTS market analysed with a 4/15.00 HT/FT bet

• Alan Dudman previews Friday's League Two playoff semi-final second leg 

Promotion Odds - Walsall now 6/52.20 with Dons

Walsall's position in the Promotion Market on the Sportsbook was strengthened following their opening leg 0-2 win at Saltergate - and with the return game at home, the 6/52.20 is now joint with Wimbledon with Chesterfield out to a massive 11/112.00.

According to Opta Stats, prior to this season, in the history of the EFL play-offs, there's been 60 instances of a side winning the first leg of their semi-final tie away from home, with 50 of those progressing to the final. Of the 23 occasions that the win has come via a 2+ goal margin, 19 sides have progressed.

Chesterfield had claimed a league-high 28 points in their final 13 matches to creep into the playoffs, but was it a game too far as they failed to convert the possession they had (a massive 74%) and over 500 accurate passes, yet were picked off on the counter with ease.

Match Odds: Walsall 13/102.30, Chesterfield 9/52.80, the draw 2/13.00

For those that subscribe to the "two-goal supremacy", Chesterfield facing this Sisyphean task have achieved a win by three goals 10 times - the best record in the country.

However, the Walsall wall seemed to get back to their best and a reminder of how good they were in the early part of the season with a strong backline, organised and a physical threat.

If you're backing the hosts, they have lost just one of their last eight games across all competitions against Chesterfield (W4 D3), scoring 2+ goals in four of their last six fixtures against this opposition but the 6/52.20  in 90 minutes and 13/102.30 for a side that finished the season poorly with four losses in six is a little too short for me, and had won just one of their last 14 matches, and that had only come in their last outing against Crewe.

Chesterfield have won just one of their last six away games across all competitions against Walsall as a Football League side (D1 L4), a 2-1 win at the Bescot Stadium in October 2015 in League One.

Can we trust the Walsall backline after the clean sheet?

The Express & Star led with the headline "Have Walsall rediscovered their defensive mojo in the nick of time?" - and that's very fair point.

Delving into their goals for and against record at the Bescot; the Saddlers scored 46 and conceded 32, which was the worst defence out of the top seven by miles.

They conceded 0.6 goals per 90 minutes during the first 23 games but it jumped up alarming in the second-half of the campaign to 1.48 goals per match, and only Newport County (38) and relegated Carlisle United (36) conceded more.

Mat Sadler has gone back to the backline troika of David Okagbue, Harry Williams and Taylor Allen and the three helped Walsall restrict Chesterfield and the ageing Will Grigg to just 0.9 xG at Saltergate.

For me, I want to go Unders, but the BTTS 'No' bet has been a good one for the playoffs thus far and I am happy with the 21/202.05 here.

Allen a big price at 9s for another spot kick 

We drew a blank with Will Grigg in the first game, but he's still a key player with six promotions in his career and is 11/26.50 and 12/53.40 for both First Goalscorer and Anytime Scorer bets.

Taylor Allen scored from the spot for Walsall at Saltergate, his eleventh of the season, which is a great return for a defender.

Allen can be backed again at 9/110.00 to score first, which is quite tempting with the penalties in mind. However, Walsall play with minimal possession and chances could be few and far between, and a good example in the first leg came in the form of Kyle McFadzean - who recorded 113 successful passes and 132 touches of the ball, both league-high figures for a Chesterfield player in a match this campaign. His 113 completed passes were only 20 fewer than the whole of Walsall's team combined (133).

Possession for possession sake and sideways passing is a sympton of the modern game I am afraid.

For that reason I am going to eschew the Goalscorer markets and I much prefer backing the Draw/Draw in the HT/FT market - as the hosts collected six at the Bescot in the regular season and I cannot see Chesterfield going too cavalier in the first 45 as they'll need to stay in the tie. And early goal for the hosts would kill the game. 

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