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Sunderland v Wycombe Wanderers: Ainsworth can triumph over Neil at Wembley

Alan Dudman
20 May 2022
4:00 min read

Sunderland manager Alex Neil guided his team to Wembley with a 15-game unbeaten run since February

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Alan Dudman ended the League One season in profit, and he previews Wembley's playoff final on Saturday hoping that Wycombe as the outsiders can cause a surprise...

"Neil's side are shorter than perhaps they should be. No layer would ever give them out at 3.259/4 - which is the same price as Wycombe."

Lay Sunderland in 90 minutes @ 2.26/5 v Wycombe

Sunderland v Wycombe Wanderers
Saturday 21st May, kick-off 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Can the Black Cats end their playoff hoodoo?

Around 44,000 loyal Sunderland fans will be at Wembley on Saturday afternoon, all praying they can end their Wembley and playoff hoodoo. It's been a catalogue of hard cheese and mischance with three appearances in finals all drawing blanks, as well as three semi-final exits in 2021, 2004 and 1987. Post season games haven't been kind.

It seems forever they have been in League One. Try and try, they just cannot crack it. In the Promotion market, the Black Cats are 1.618/13, and that's not an odds-on shot I'd like to take. We've been down this road before with Sunderland's price, and with history, it looks a lay to me.

A summary of their season; Lee Johnson was the previous incumbent in the high-pressure job, but he never ever won over the fans. Alex Neil is not exactly known for his exciting football, nor indeed demeanour, but he got results with his 15 games and 30 points. Averaging two per game was pretty good going.

Patrick Roberts was the hero at Hillsborough with a stoppage time leveller to secure the 2-1 aggregate victory over Sheffield Wednesday in the first leg, although the Owls played into Sunderland's hands by not taking a gamble.

For the team news; much depends on the excellent Everton man Nathan Broadhead and whether he will be fit enough to make Saturday's final. Neil said at the press conference he has a fully fit squad, so we can deduce that the 13 in 26 man will make it. Carl Winchester appears fit from a groin injury, while Leon Dajaku is another set to make the squad.

Talisman Aiden McGeady hasn't played a game since November following a ligament injury and was an unused sub towards the end of the season. The veteran could be wheeled out for one last hurrah.

Alex Neil red pre season 1280 .jpg

Ainsworth has history on his side

If things had been different, Wycombe boss Gareth Ainsworth could have been in the Sunderland job. The "wild thing" has been linked with numerous positions in recent seasons, but he has stayed loyal to the Chairboys' cause. Taking them up, taking them down, and the chance to take them back up again.

The 49-year-old is the second-longest serving manager in the EFL and has created the same "Crazy Gang" mentality that his former Wimbledon team had. He backs his players and his players seem to love him. "We are a successful side in 2021/22, we've got 83 points and we've got nothing to lose," he said.

"I want my boys to show what they can do."

They, like Sunderland, had a very consistent run from late February and didn't lose a game but their play-off history reads better, as according to Opta this is Wanderers' fourth Football League play-off final, winning promotion in the fourth tier in 1993-94 (4-2 vs Preston) and third tier in 2019-20 (2-1 vs Oxford) but losing 6-7 on penalties in 2014-15 after a 1-1 draw with Southend in the fourth tier.

At 2.588/5 they are the outsiders of the two in the Promotion market - but I've got them already recommended at 6.05/1 before the playoffs started. That is the ideal trade.

Gareth Ainsworth chin pre season 1280 .jpg

His opposite number knows the threat and knows it won't be pretty. Neil said of Wycombe: "They are a tough team to beat. They have got a great habit of being in games all of the time. They don't need to necessarily play well to win. They are dangerous from the first minute to the last."

A lay of the Black Cats looks the call

I was expecting Sunderland to be at their 2.35/4 price to win, as Wycombe are often underdogs and underrated. That's exactly how the layers see this one, and as regular readers know, Neil's side are shorter than perhaps they should be. No layer would ever give them out at 3.259/4 - which is the same price as Wycombe.

Both managers have playoff pedigree. Neil has taken charge of nine play-off matches to date with Hamilton Academical, Norwich City and Sunderland, and has lost only once (W5 D3). Neil has come out on top in both of his play-off finals to date, earning promotion to the Scottish Premiership in 2014 with Hamilton, and to the Premier League in 2015 with Norwich.

Ainsworth took the Bucks club up in 2019-20, and I have used their semi-final success over two legs at Fleetwood back then as a reference point. And indeed the Oxford final. Both opponents were good, passing teams. It mattered little to Wycombe who bulldozed their way though and simply blew Fleetwood away.

Indeed, the stats graphic from Sky (picture below) before the Wembley final two seasons ago shows you how possession and being creative means absolutely zero to Wycombe. They just win ugly.

Wycombe v Oxford stats 1280.jpg

The Mackems came out on top from their two matches in the regular season. It was a thrilling 3-3 at Adams Park in January, while Sunderland won the points in August with a 3-1 success at the Stadium Of Light.

As I have the 6.05/1 position on Wycombe for the promotion bet, the lay of Sunderland in 90 minutes is the way to go for me at around 2.26/5. They had a great record at home all season (losing just three), but they did draw nine times on the road and with the lay we have two running in 90 minutes.

Under 2.5 price goes against the stats and season games

Despite both matches throwing up goalfests with 10 in two matches for the regular campaign, the Under 2.5 Goals is priced prohibitively at 1.684/6. It's a bet I was interested in my mind before the markets were out, but not at nearly twos-on.

That price is in the face also of the historic League One finals at Wembley. Seven of the last nine have been Over 2.5 Goals since 2013, and Wycombe themselves were 2-1 winners two seasons ago.

Backing the Under 1.5 is available at 2.962/1, and that's more of a bet knowing how tight each of the legs over the semi-finals were, but there is little margin for error for that price. The BTTS price is similar at about 1.910/11, so they could be best utilised in playing on the Bet Builders.

Get the profit with the corners

The corners markets could be the most interesting here. Wycombe are good at soaking up pressure, very adept. And Sunderland will have more of the ball. I am hoping we get something similar to Wycombe's return leg against the MK Dons where the corner count was an astonishing 18-1 in favour of MK. At home to Sheffield Wednesday they lost 2-12 on corners, so they accept against the better teams they are happy to absorb.

The Sunderland Corner Match Bet on the Sportsbook at 8/11 looks a sound play as they should see more of the ball.

Vokes the man for the Bet Builder

Ross Stewart has scored 25 goals in League One for Sunderland this season, including four goals alone against Wycombe. The last player to score five times against an opponent in a League One season was Ricky Holmes for Charlton vs Shrewsbury Town in 2016-17.

I was impressed with the young forward in the two legs, leading the line without Broadhead and he never let his head go down. He's brave too and always wants to be in the game.

Stewart as Anytime Scorer and Under 2.5 Goals looks a good price at 4.55 for the double using a Bet Builder.

Garath McCleary pre season 1280 .jpg

Wycombe's Sam Vokes has 17 this season and he's a juicy 10/3 Anytime Scorer, while his teammate and the lovely player to watch Garath McCleary is 7/2 and hit 11 from midfield during the season including two against Plymouth. Vokes is always in the game considering Wycombe's prowess at set-pieces from Joe Jacobson's delivery.

The Wanderers skipper is a must for Anytime Assist. He wasn't priced up at the time of writing, so keep an eye when updated ahead of Sunday.

I am going for the exotic with Vokes for Anytime Scorer and Wycombe to win - that pays around 15.014/1 for a double. There's also an interesting bet in anticipation for a tight game and the 4/1 Winning Margin for Wycombe by one goal.

Thanks for reading throughout the season and it was a rather gutting that Rotherham lost out for the ante-post bet, but enjoy the final and look forward to next season.