Sunday League One Tips: Greens for the title and MK to avoid the drop?

• Title-deciding Sunday with Greens fancied

• Cambridge need a win to stay up

• Can MK Dons earn survival at Burton?

Title decider to go right down to the wire

Port Vale v Plymouth Argyle
Sunday 7th May, kick-off 12:00

There's no greater incentive on Sunday for Plymouth's trip to Port Vale with the League One title at stake. The Greens are a point ahead of Ipswich (98 to 97) and have a chance to seal the winner spot against a team with nothing to play for.

Destiny is in their own hands, and you can still back in the League One winner market with Plymouth at 1.68/13 and Ipswich at 2.26/5.

Argyle ensured the ante-post column from last summer earned a profit, as they were my promotion bet at 5/1, although the less said about Burton the better.

Ipswich face Fleetwood who have nothing to play for and are 2/5 shots for Sunday, but Plymouth's 3/4 price is a snapshot of the season - as they've consistently been under-rated in the betting.

There has been no case of them taking their foot of the gas either, as they head into the final game of the season with five straight victories and three clean sheets in that sequence. They also have won 10 of their last 12.

Only Forest Green Rovers (16) and Accrington Stanley (14) have lost more League One games in 2023 than Port Vale (13), and with nothing to play for other than pride, the Sportsbook price of 3/4 for a Plymouth win offers some value.

Niall Ennis has finished the season in a strong manner, and his 14 goals (three in his last three) leads me to consider the Bet Builder with an away win, and boss Steve Schumacher said of his attacker: "He has been brilliant. We have missed Niall for parts of the season through injury. Whenever he hasn't been available that is going to affect the team because he's a good player."

Backing Ennis at 4/1 First Goalscorer is a bigger price than the 6/4 Anytime, and he has netted the opener in two of his last three.

Schumacher has rotated his squad well in recent months, especially his midfield and forwards, and they have so many scoring options I would be amazed if they couldn't find the net here, as Vale have conceded more than they have scored at home and were always quite open under previous manager Darrell Clarke.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth Argyle have won 30 League One matches this season - only one side has won more than 30 games in a third tier season this century, with Wolves winning 31 in 2013-14.

Cambridge to rely on Smith for last day survival

Cambridge United v Forest Green Rovers
Sunday 7th May, kick-off 12:00

Mathematically there are three relegation candidates for two places with Oxford's -6 goal difference worth an extra point at the foot of the table, and they trade at 70.069/1 in the Relegation market.

To go down, Accrington are no offers (41 points), Morecambe are 1.251/4, Cambridge 1.251/4 and MK Dons 2.3411/8 to keep the drama alive on Sunday lunchtime.

Cambridge need MK Dons to lose at Burton to have a chance of staying up, and what a game to have against already-relegated Forest Green - surely one of the worst ever teams to grace the third tier?

At 4/9, I would have Cambridge even shorter. Forest Green have won just once all season on the road and scored a pathetic 16 goals away from home.

Even Opta can put the boot in too against Big Dunc, as in their first season in League One, Forest Green have been relegated suffering 30 league defeats so far. They are only the third newly promoted side to lose 30 games in an EFL season, along with Tranmere Rovers in 1938-39 (second tier, 31 defeats) and Hereford United in 2008-09 (League One, 30 defeats).

The U's have won eight at home, and with something to play for and a robust, direct style, this could all be a bit too much for the visitors, and Cambridge have won four of their last eight. Wins with the odd loss are far more valuable than a few draws.

Sam Smith was on a golden run recently with a goal in six successive games, and the Anytime Goalscorer price of 7/5 is another worth a punt, or at least close inspection. He faces a defence that have shipped 45 goals on the road - one of the worst in League One.

Rovers have poor xG and xA stats at 0.86 and 1.65, and I make Cambridge one of the best bets this weekend.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge United have won two of their four home games against Forest Green in the Football League (L2) - winning the most recent such meeting 1-0 in March 2021.

Dons can preserve their League One status

Burton Albion v MK Dons
Sunday 7th May, kick-off 12:00

At no stage of the season have the MK Dons deserved to be 11/10 chances on the road, but needs must, and the equation is simple for Mark Jackson's team - win and they stay in League One.

Whether they deserve to on this season's efforts is another matter. Jackson at least got a tune out of his team with a seven-game unbeaten run from March into mid-April, and they are the outsiders in the Relegation Market at 2.3411/8.

Amazingly they scored four at home to Barnsley last Saturday, but blowing a three-goal lead was a complete disaster. They didn't deserve a "lap of honour" however, and the fans voiced their dissatisfaction with the players not signing autographs - although it seems to be the fad these days. Thanks Arsenal and Leeds.

I'll take the positives from that, and considering they have been slightly better away from home this season, it's a bet worth taking on Sunday against a poor Burton team.

Excluding the 2019-20 season, Burton have lost their final league game of the season in their last five full seasons, conceding at least twice in every defeat, and Wednesday's 1-0 home win to Cambridge put the U's into a must-win situation this weekend.

The three points against Cambridge was a turgid affair, with both managing just three shots in total between in 90 minutes, and Burton's last five games have all been Under 2.5 Goals.

Both the Over and Under 2.5 on the Sportsbook are odds-on, so that's a market I'll leave alone for the weekend, and the Dons' xG of just 1.02 on the road makes me easily swerve that.

Jackson said of the Barnsley 4-4 recently: "It was the best performance we've had all season in that second-half," he said. "We stuck it to a team in the play-offs, a team we were last year. And we all know where we are this season, but we played like we were the best team in the league for 70 minutes. But games are 90 minutes long."

One final rousing performance to keep their status is my thinking here, and it's certainly a case of the market being skewed here in favour of the team that needs the result the most.

KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons have won two of their three away matches at Burton (L1), with both of those victories coming in their last two visits to the Pirelli Stadium.