EFL League One & League Two

Stockport v Salford: Back Ammies to complete the job

  • Ian Lamont
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Salford City fans
Salford could be celebrating again on Saturday

Neil Wood's side have a remarkable away scoring record and can win at Stockport, who could be toothless without reputed strikers in the playoff second leg, says Ian Lamont...

  • Stockport have striker problems

  • Scoring late is a Salford speciality

  • Back goals as Hatters attack


The main focus from the national media after the first leg was once again on the ownership of Salford City being largely in the hands of former Manchester United footballers. Well, that thread is a distraction.

For all their glories, onlookers Roy Keane, Gary Neville and co can't kick the ball for the Ammies' players.

Can Salford hold on to, or build on, their first leg lead? I have a suspicion that Stockport took no risks on Paddy Madden and Will Collar, two of their three 10-goal plus strikers who were carrying injuries, in order to give them the best chance of recovering in time for the second leg.

Kyle Wootton, top scorer this season, is ruled out as he requires a knee operation.

Shot-shy Stockport a worry

County's chances, I feel, very much depend on having at least one of those two strikers back.

They lacked a goal threat in the first leg. Their only shot on target came when Connor Lemonheigh-Evans forced Alex Cairns into a save and Ryan Croasdale hit the underside of the bar.

Within two minutes, Matt Smith had netted the game's only goal for Salford, who went on to dominate possession, largely.

Their price of 1.75/7 to win is simply too short given we won't know until the teamsheet comes out whether either Collar or Madden will play. Salford are 5.59/2 while the draw is 3.711/4.

Dave Challinor's side worked their way into the first game, finding more space in the second half. But the Stockport manager cut a depressed figure on the bench.

This despite claiming afterwards that his relatively inexperienced players in this type of game will take heart from their second half performance and allay any fears they had they were not up to such a big occasion.

It was a nip and tuck game with few real chances, but Neil Wood's side were on top, just about.

The Hatters will have to attack - as the price dictates. They are capable, through the interweaving Kyle Knoyle and Akil Wright on the right; through Myles Hippolyte on the left of midfield and Callum Camps, plus Croasdale.

Lemonheigh-Evans might produce a spark up front and Jack Stretton, 21, might just sniff out a chance.

Defensively they look OK, despite midfielder Antoni Sarcevic's absence to thwart opposition attacks. They have lost just three times at Edgeley Park this season, conceding 16 goals. Only Leyton Orient (13) let in fewer at home.

Opta stress the hosts have won or drawn their last 12 at home, where they have won three of their last four at home in playoffs, all 1-0.

That scenario is 3.55/2 on Sportsbook. However, Salford to win 1.0 is 6.05/1 while there are larger prices on wins for the visitors, such as 2-1 at 15.014/1. It's worth a risk if Stockport's strikers are not present.

Back Salford to win at Stockport @

5.5

Visitors produce late goal rallies

For all Stockport's tightness at home, they are definitely vulnerable even if their main strikers return. Salford have a habit of striking more goals on their travels than at home - and late on.

The Ammies, have a joint League Two high 12 away wins, with Mansfield, the team they edged out of the playoff spot by a single goal. While they didn't have the top away points tally, their +13 goal difference on their travels was the best in the division.

Luke Bolton struck late in their 3-2 win at Carlisle just a couple of weeks ago, just seven days after Matt Lund and Conor McAleny did the same for a 3-2 win at Walsall.

In their previous away game, Callum Hendry hit two in injury time to win at AFC Wimbledon. Smith and Hendry both also scored in the dying minutes to defeat Stevenage on their own ground.

Their three players who have 10+ goals this season were all on the pitch last weekend and there don't seem any fitness doubts about Smith, McAleny or Hendry. Stephen Mallan offered plenty alongside Elliot Watt in midfield.

While experienced Adrian Mariappa, signed pretty recently as a free agent, offered all the assurance you would expect from an experienced former Watford player.

This is going to be a tough night for the hosts. Salford will be confident. They will feel battle hardened and empowered. Over 2.5 goals is 2.111/10 and in any case seems cautious. I am tempted by over 3.5 goals at 3.814/5.

Back Salford to win 2-1 on Sportsbook @

15.0

Hendry has six appeal in front of goal

The layers are keen not to lose too much money on Stockport scoring first, it seems, because the first seven players in the better in the goalscorers markets are Hatters players - and four of them sat out the first leg injured.

Of the rest, Jack Stretton at 5.59/2 and Lomonheigh-Evans at 6.511/2 for firsts scorer rarely looked like troubling the keeper.

It makes more sense to go for one of the Salford players to score at any time: Hendry or McAleny are both about 4.3100/30 to score at any time.

I was thinking about Bolton at 6.511/2 to score at any time, but Hendry has a remarkable record: Not only did he score in all those high-scoring away wins mentioned above, he has netted in his last six away games, at various times of the match. Take the hint.

Back Callum Hendry to score at any time at over

3/1

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