Sheff Weds v Sunderland: Another tight 90 minutes in store at Hillsborough

Sheffield Wednesday v Sunderland
Monday 9th May, kick-off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Following Wycombe's progress to the League One Playoff Wembley final last night, either Sheffield Wednesday or Sunderland face-off in the return leg at Hillsborough on Monday evening with the chance to face Wycombe and ensure the pathway to Championship football.

Saying the Owls and the Black Cats should make a good final at the end of the month is a disservice to what Wycombe have achieved, but the two sleeping giants are built for these games, built for Wembley, and certainly built for a higher level of football.

Remember, Sunderland have got their playoff demons having failed in six attempts to make it to the Championship and beyond. History has not been kind to them, and in the past, have been a bag of nerves in these clutch games. Layers might be after them in the Promotion market.

The Promotion market has gone through something of a shift this week, and while Wycombe are favourites at 2.915/8, Wednesday have drifted out a little to nearly 4.03/1, with Sunderland expected to make it through at 2.6213/8. Historically the Mackems are always too short, I wonder if they are too short again?

Did Moore play a dangerous game?

The verdict from Friday's 1-0 loss in the first leg showed Darren Moore's side in a rather impotent light; as they barely created a chance all evening. Considering their line-up held Barry Bannan and Lee Gregory in it, a total of one shot on target over 90 minutes was poor.

I was worried about them going too defensively, and that's exactly what they did. Their 4-2-3-1 was more rooted in playing on the backfoot, and Bannan, the maestro so often in midfield pulling the strings barely got a foothold in the game. Indeed, at one point he had the fewest touches in the first-half with just 14.

Moore said: "I just thought it was an overall good performance by them but, for us, it was about staying in the game, it didn't go in our way tonight in what we wanted to do on the ball but Sunderland didn't allow us to do that tonight. We regroup and then we go again on Monday."

The overriding feeling from Friday was that they have played it as a 180 minutes game - a tie to stay in rather than go for it. Classic Unai Emery tactics; breaking down matches into chunks.

Neil's tactical switch worked in first leg

Talking of classics, one of the best quotes coming out of the post-match verdicts was from Sunderland boss Alex Neil. The Scot, vastly experienced in the leagues, said he doesn't take too much notice of fans message boards and forums and isn't interested what John from Leardon says; or something along those lines.

The 1-0 victory at the Stadium Of Light should have been more. Scheming Alex Pritchard hit the bar, and they dominated the game totally using their 3-5-2. The fans, and they came out in force in the north east for a superb atmosphere with the ground buzzing, might be feeling a little anxious for Monday's trip. So might John.

Neil got the tactics spot on, and the change from the usual back three worked, as they were allowed far more possession - which is why Bannan was non-existent. They were especially good out wide in a battle of the wing-backs. Sunderland's pair pressed far and higher and pinned back the usual source of attack from the Owls.

It was a job well done for 90 minutes.

The participation of Everton loanee Nathan Broadhead is the one we are all waiting for. He didn't make the first leg, and the 24-year-old is a great outlier for Ross Stewart and can allow Neill to play with his favoured two forwards. But the Scot gives virtually nothing away in press conferences regarding injuries, so we wait and see if he makes the game. Broadhead's craft alongside Pritchard gives them a bit of creativity, and they will need the extra bit of class as Wednesday will be a more dangerous force. We've seen in the two MK Dons and Wycombe games how tight these League One matches in the playoffs can be.

Owls midfielder Massimo Luongo will be vital in this game as his combative break-up play will be key to freeing Bannan.

Another tight 90 minutes in the match betting?

Wednesday's strong home form has them in pole position here in the match outrights at 2.021/1, and that's probably expected, but still short enough. The perception of them playing for the second leg has filtered heavily into the markets here, and the Owls only lost twice at Hillsborough all season. The home leg is also obvious, and it is such a deciding factor.

Look at how Wycombe played the advantage at Adams Park.

I am sticking to my game plan here and playing the draw again at 3.711/4, which is a bigger price than the first leg so we go again.

Moore's team conceded a mere 18 goals at home, and there is absolutely no way Neil will go head first and attack for this as he has admitted, and shown he is a control freak.

Both ended the season strongly, so the back of the draw at 3.711/4 plays into the hands of a potential trade.

In-Play trade and Under 2.5

A fine stat came out of the Sky coverage from the first leg, and for those looking for a trading or in-play bet an early one could be possible. Sunderland are very efficient with first-half goals and were on 17 in the League One for the first 15 minutes of games. Both are up there on the stats.

Sheffield Wednesday aren't too bad either and were on 15. Do we lay or back in-running with the perceived tight affair in store?

The hosts may have won the regular season game in Sheffield 3-0 back in November - with as little as 36% possession, but with Neil in charge, it won't nearly be as open and I am happy backing the stalemate again. I also think the Under 2.5 Goals is worth exploring too; as I thought it would be a little shorter than the 1.824/5 on offer.

Bet Builder options

Ross Stewart's 25th goal of the season settled the first tie, and he'll be popular in playing on the Bet Builder options. But he did benefit from a keeper mistake for the only goal of legs so far, although there is a nice boost from 5/2 to 3/1 on the Sportsbook for Stewart and Pritchard to have 1 or more shots on target.

Stewart in the Bet Builder and Sunderland to win pays 7.24156/25 on the double, but I do like the BTTS To Score angle again with 'No' and using the draw at a massive 9.93893/100.