Stats heavily in favour of draw bet for Sky Tv opener
Forest Green Rovers v Exeter City
Saturday 24th September, kick-off 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event
A Sky TV double header for Saturday and Sunday, although a somewhat curious choice of Forest Green and Exeter - two of the promoted sides kicking off the weekend at lunchtime.
Out of the League One newbies, Exeter are better placed in 15th against Forest Green's bottom three effort thus far, but the Grecians have failed to win on the road in their four games with two draws and two losses.
We start with a telling stat for potentially two evenly-matched teams, as Opta reveal that each of the last four league meetings between Forest Green Rovers and Exeter City, they have all been drawn, with the last three all ending goalless, and with the column landing two Draw outright bets last weekend in the big games, that's the way I am going.
Playing the Under 2.5 is the shorter of the two at 1.824/5 with the more cavalier Under 1.5 Goals at 3.3512/5. Both are a mixed bag in terms of finding the net. The hosts have scored 10 and conceded four at home, Exeter have only mustered F4 A6, so they have been in all their games, so it's probably wise to stick with the draw outright.
Value for the Under 2.5 and Draw Sportsbook Bet Builder option pays 3.76, and City have drawn 0-0 and 1-1 on the road which gives food for thought for the Correct Score plays at 0-0 and 1-1 priced at 10.09/1 and 7.06/1 respectively, and the 0-0gives the option to trade out and lay back your stake in-running.
Jamille Matt hasn't scored a League One goal so far so his Anytime Goalscorer 21/10 offers little value although he is a player I thought would do well this term, and if you are seeking out a lay, you can take him on with the Exchange To Score market.
Exeter City have lost their last two league matches, last losing three on the bounce in December and January last season in League Two, so they will hardly go hell-for leather in this despite the host and their penchant for conceding first-half goals.
It's now 11 in the first 45 this term - a League One high.
KEY OPTA STAT: Exeter have only lost one of their 10 Football League meetings with Forest Green (W4 D5), a 2-1 defeat in October 2018.
Posh are far too big in price to ignore at home
Peterborough v Port Vale
Saturday 24th September, kick-off 15:00
Grant McCann's Peterborough as one of my ante-post tips got off to a rip-roaring start, and the profit flame was flickering more than brightly.
However, a disastrous run in all competitions has seen them slip to an equally dismal 10th. Tenth good for some, but Posh are miles better than that.
The saving grace is their home form, they simply are bad travellers these days. A home record of W3 L1 F9 A1 makes them shorter odds in my book and this 1.9720/21 price looks an outstanding one.
Port Vale have only won two of their last 18 Football League away games at Peterborough (D8 L8), with this their first such trip since a 2-2 draw in September 2016, and they are readily opposable, and with seven conceded on the road, Posh strike duo Jonson Clarke-Harris and Jack Marriot could be in for a good day. JCH is 8/5 on the Sportsbook to Score Anytime and so is Marriott with the former scoring three of his five this term at London Road. The Sportsbook Bet Builder option with him anytime and Posh to win looks a good bet too.
KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough are looking to win back-to-back Football League meetings with Port Vale for the first time since November 2004, after beating them 3-0 in their most recent league clash in February 2017.
Greens and Town can gives us another draw winner
Plymouth Argyle v Ipswich Town
Sunday 25th September, kick-off 12:30, live on Sky Sports Football
I may have been slightly sniffy with the Saturday game, but there's no denying Sunday's lunchtime offering is a cracker. Plymouth are in form with a good home record, while Ipswich are playing their best stuff at this level for a long time.
The market once again is under-rating Plymouthh at 3.613/5 against Town's 2.26/5, which they probably deserve, but is it a little bit too short for an away win? But who are we to argue with 21 points so far and four wins and a draw from their five road trips. Since Steven Schumacher's first league game in charge in December 2021, only Sheffield Wednesday (21) have won more League One matches than Plymouth (19, excl. play-offs), which shows how the market is taking time to price them up accordingly.
They've had some relatively easy fixtures to date away, winning against Accrington, Shrewsbury and Burton. But their one big test at Sheffield Wednesday saw them draw in a great game 2-2. That's the angle once again for me. Ipswich won three of the four League One matches between themselves and Plymouth across the previous two seasons (L1); this is more than they had won in their previous nine Football League meetings with the Pilgrims beforehand (W2 D5 L2), and the draw part of the column excites me.
Plymouth are excellent defensively - and have won all three at Home Park with three clean sheets. The 0-0 is a possible here, and once again that gives room to trade out, but the draw at 3.412/5 is the bet. Town like to dominate possession where as Plymouth can be more of a counter-attack team. The hosts do have goals in them too, but but both are good at the back and cancel each other out.
KEY OPTA STAT: Ipswich Town are unbeaten in their nine league matches this season (W6 D3) and are looking to start a league season with 10 unbeaten games for only a third time, also doing so in 1980-81 under Bobby Robson (first 14) and 2019-20 under Paul Lambert (first 11).