Saturday League One Tips: Back a Friday night draw to head into the weekend

• Live game on Sky for Friday night and a Bet Builder pick
• Owls look to have a great chance at Lincoln
• Al Dudman previews Friday and Saturday action in the third tier with six selections

Back the draw for Friday's TV encounter

Ipswich Town v Derby County
Friday 21st October, kick-off 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

I spent a recent Tuesday night at the invite of the German Ambassador at the Belgravia Embassy, and much like last week: "Sky, you are spoiling us" as we have a TV gift on Friday with two, if not title hopefuls, certainly Championship bound clubs.

The Tractor Boys have looked the part this term, and trade as the 2.3411/8 League One winner favourites, while Derby and their shiny new boss Paul Warne are at 26.025/1. I am pleased that one of my ante-post picks Plymouth are the table-toppers at the moment and can still be backed at 6.25/1 for that market.

A crowd of more than 28,000 is expected tonight and Derby are looking to secure three successive away victories since Warne was jettisoned into the job. I felt for Liam Rosenior as I think he's a good young coach and will have a decent career, but Warne's know-how and experience of this division swayed it.

Derby were a passing team under Rosenior, but often created little. Since the switch, the Rams are more aggressive, more pressing and the style of play is more direct and they present far more of a physical challenge.

According to Opta; Derby have won each of their last two away league games, as many wins as in their previous 25 such games (D8 L15). Not since July 2020 have the Rams won three successive league games on the road, so the Clean Sheet 'Yes' market is worth considering tonight with Derby 'Yes'. Warne has gone 3-5-2 with wing-backs - a system well used from his Rotherham days and he does like pace and width.

Ipswich's home record reads W4 D2 L1 with 14 scored and six conceded and have three clean sheets in that run, but they have been devastating on the road with five wins and a draw.

Added intrigue too for the night as former centre-back Richard Keogh, now with Ipswich, plays against his former team as Town will be looking to add to their 30 points in 14 games.

Ipswich will have the possession here and try to break the lines, and I'd expect a 60-40 possession game in favour of the hosts and the xG numbers at Portman are excellent with an xG for at 2.27 and an xA of just 1.03. Compared to Derby's away numbers of 1.73 and 1.03.

Tapping into both xA figures and knowing Warne like I do, I would favour the Under 2.5 bet if you are looking that way, or indeed a play for a Sportsbook Bet Builder. It shades favouritism at 1.8810/11, and I would be leaning more towards the Draw outright, and the double pays 3.7669/25 on the Sportsbook.

In short, there isn't a lot between the two, and in these sort of games I do prefer the back of the draw - it also gives scope to trade out if you are using in-play bets, and Ipswich's two draws at home have been both 2-2.

KEY OPTA STAT: Derby have won four of their last five league visits to Ipswich, although drew their most recent 1-1 in February 2019.

Owls' supremacy against lower half teams makes them a strong bet

Lincoln City v Sheff Wednesday
Saturday 22nd October, kick-off 15:00

Another of the League One big guns Sheffield Wednesday make the betting list this weekend, and the Owls have given the column a bit of success this term - especially using the Win To Nil market.

Away from home the Owls have a low xA at 1.03 and have shipped just four on the road all season - the best defensive record away from home in League One, so Darren Moore is doing plenty right.

Their run on the road is very impressive as from their six games, five are clean sheets with wins at 0-2, 0-1, 0-3, 0-1 and 0-2. The only goals they have conceded were at Home Park against League One leaders Plymouth, and they lost 2-1. Not many even score there, so we can go pretty confident with a clean sheet bet for this one.

Lincoln are almost Charlton-like with their penchant for a draw - four at Sincil Bank already this season with a F6 A4 record. Don't expect too many goals here. The Under 2.5 Goals price is quite generous at 1.845/6, as I thought it would be a lot shorter, and according to Opta, the Imps have recorded clean sheets in each of their last two league games (W1 D1), as many as in their opening 10 league games this season. The Imps last went three league games without conceding in April 2021.

Their xG at home at just 0.81 tells you all you need to know, and while it's an interesting job for former Liverpool winger Mark Kennedy, my interest lies with a low-scoring away win. They did produce one of the most almighty shocks of the season so far with a 0-1 at Ipswich - having just 20% of the ball and fielding 33 shots against. Those sort of games on another day can be 0-4, but they defended for their lives.

However, Wednesday are outstanding against bottom-half table teams, and have a record of seven wins from seven and 18 goals scored with just one conceded.

KEY OPTA STAT: Lee Gregory has scored more league goals than any other Sheffield Wednesday player in 2022 (12), with him scoring both goals for the Owls in their 2-0 win over Cambridge last time out.

Will Manning last with Wycombe in town?

MK Dons v Wycombe Wanderers
Saturday 22nd October, kick-off 15:00

Strange times for MK Dons and Liam Manning, a coach tipped for great things and a promotion-built team who now find themselves in the bottom three, and slumming it with the likes of Burton and Morecambe. This wasn't the vision, and the only thing being tipped at the moment is Manning facing the chop.

Wycombe have lost a touch of their invincible air, although manager Gareth Ainsworth still has his invincible hair. Unlike most his age who have invisible hair.

Wanderers have always been a better team at home, but this is not an easy game for Manning, as his constant possession game will play into the hands of Wycombe who care little for possession stats and the ball. It doesn't bother Ainsworth nor their fans. MK can barely create chance in anger these days and it's easy to see why the Dons aren't even favourites for this at 3.02/1.

Wycombe have lost each of their last three league visits to MK Dons, last winning such a trip in April 2010 (3-2) but we have to go against those Opta stats for a bet on them, and they are the call here at 2.47/5. The hosts will be nervy, and Ainsworth will tap into that.

MK Dons have lost each of their last four league games, and could lose five in succession for the first time since November 2019. Indeed, they've already lost as many league games this season (9 in 13) as they did in the entirety of last season (9 in 46).

Manning suffered the heaviest defeat of his career last weekend as the Dons were thumped and trounced by Plymouth 1-4 at home, with a string of defensive errors at the back. They played a bit better, but their previous games against Shrewsbury Bristol Rovers were awful matches and drab encounters, and Ainsworth won't mind that one bit.

KEY OPTA STAT: Wycombe are the only side in League One this season to score 100% of their goals from open play (17/17), with their last set piece goal in the league coming in their final game of last season through a Sam Vokes header from a corner.