Peterborough v Sheff Wed League One Playoff Tips: Back the Draw

• Posh and Wednesday evenly priced up

• A 16/1 OddsBoost appeals for Friday

• A lay on star striker and a Bet Builder pick

Peterborough United v Sheffield Wednesday
Friday 12 May, kick-off 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Edwards inclusion a huge plus for Posh

The return of Darren Ferguson for the umpteenth time earlier in the season, while not greeted with rotten fruit being thrown, was hardly the move Posh fans were expecting after Grant McCann's departure, but it worked. Ferguson picked up 42 points from his 22 games - a points tally only bettered by Plymouth, Barnsley and Ipswich.

Ferguson will be delighted that he can call upon young defender Ronnie Edwards, who was due to be involved with the England U-20s, so that's one less headache for the Scot to deal and he is set to maintain his excellent centre-back partnership with Frankie Kent.

Nathan Thompson and Nathanael Ogbeta are ruled out, and Ferguson may keep his two full-backs that played to well against Barnsley - who play a back three much like Sheffield Wednesday.

Peterborough gained the final play-off spot on Sunday - a point ahead of Derby on 76 and trade as the outsiders at 5.69/2 in the Promotion market.

Gregory back for Owls to lead the line?

Despite a wobble that completely blew their title hopes (and they were matched at a very short price on the Exchange), Wednesday ended with a four-match winning streak and rightly head the Promotion betting at 2.6413/8.

Striker Lee Gregory is set to return after missing the Derby County victory due to a facial injury, and his experience, goals and hold-up play are vital to the way the Owls set up.

Josh Windass is fit again too, so Moore has a good poser with any two from the four including Callum Paterson and Michael Smith.

The Yorkshire club ended the season with 96 points - a tremendous effort, but the run without a win in six games in March/April proved catastrophic. Will that still be lingering in the minds?

Match Odds

With 7/4 on Posh and 13/8 on the Owls, the match outrights couldn't be tighter, although Wednesday are 8/13 on the Sportsbook in the To Qualify market.

This is Wednesday's fifth play-off campaign - after winning promotion in their first in 2004-05 in League One, they've failed to get promoted in their last three (2015-16, 2016-17 in the Championship, 2021-22 in League One), so that's a slight worry across the two legs.

Posh have won promotion in three of their previous four play-off campaigns in the Football League (1992, 2000 and 2011), however they were eliminated in the semi-finals in their most recent one in 2014 - a 3-2 aggregate loss against Leyton Orient in the third tier, which came under current manager Ferguson.

The hosts are unbeaten in their last five home matches against the Owls (W3 D2), winning each of the last three in a row, including a 2-0 win earlier this season in August, but their record against the big teams this term worries me at playing at such cramped odds.

Moore's team lost six matches - Posh lost 17.

How to approach the Under/Over market

Peterborough were 2-0 winners at London Road back in the summer in August, which seems an awfully long time ago, although Wednesday played the majority of the game with ten men.

The Posh lost the return League One fixture at Hillsborough 1-0, a game where they failed to register a single shot on target despite the even split of 50/50 in terms of possession of the ball.

On that basis, it's not a shock to see the Under 2.5 Goals trade at the shorter of the two at 8/11 and the Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10.

Across the two meetings between Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday in League One this season (one win each), both teams recorded six shots on target and had an almost identical expected goals total, based on the quality of goal-scoring opportunities they created (1.29 for Sheffield Wednesday and 1.28 for Peterborough).

Considering backers of the BTTS bet would have copped in both regular fixtures, the 'No' at Evens is a possibility and the visitors have an excellent xA rating of 1.36 - although it's 1.06xA at home.

Will the supreme strikers will be nullified?

Jonson Clarke-Harris has been directly involved in 30 league goals for Peterborough this season (26 goals and four assists), which is at least twice as many as any of his teammates in 2022-23 (15 for Joe Ward and Ephron Mason-Clark), and the skipper has led the line superbly.

He's a real leader.

However, his price to Score Anytime is often so short, and I've missed him on a few occasions, so I am inclined to take him on with a lay bet for this at around 2.77/4 on the Betfair Exchange once the market materialises.

Barry Bannan has assisted 13 league goals for Wednesday this season, with only Leif Davis (14) providing more in League One in 2022-23. Indeed, Bannan (127) was one of only two players to create 100+ chances in the competition during the regular season, along with Davis (132).

With that supply line, Michael Smith is 21/10 to Score Anytime - a bigger price than JCH. He ended the season strongly and Moore will have to decide whether to keep him in the line-up. He netted 20 from 46 in the season and finished with six in his last five games - including a hat-trick against Shrewsbury.

Gregory has 10 in 44 this term and is 5/1 First Goalscorer, but he's a big-game player.

Ephron Mason-Clark has ability to score goals from deeper, and is a big price at 4/1 to Score Anytime.

Bet Builder options and a Smith OddsBoost

Smith as first goalscorer and Wednesday to win pays out a near 9/1 Sportsbook double, while Clarke-Harris the the man for penalties and a Posh win and Anytime Scorer pays 5/2 for a Bet Builder.

If you prefer Smith, and I'll think he'll start, there's an OddsBoost which is very generous to score before 19:59 that has been boosted from 12/1 to 16/1.