Notts County v AFC Wimbledon: Jackson's Dons to stand firm in opening playoff game

• Wimbledon's defence key for big performance on Saturday evening 

• Notts County wobbled at the end of the season

• Alan Dudman has two tips for the League Two playoff semi-final first leg at Meadow Lane

Football... Only Bettor. Watch the latest episode now.

County favourites in Promotion Market

The League Two promotion market has a tighter look to it than League One with Notts County as a the 2/13.00 favourites and AFC Wimbledon not far behind at 23/103.30, and with that in mind, Saturday evening's match could be a cagey and hard fought affair.

Chesterfield who play on Sunday are the team with all the momentum and are available to back in the Promotion market on the Sportsbook at at 3/14.00.

Match Odds: Notts County 6/52.20, AFC Wimbledon 12/53.40, the Draw 23/103.30

Notts County's form heading into the playoffs was poor - winning just once in their last six games and my gut instinct with their price at 6/52.20 to win on Saturday evening is that it's far too short.

On too many occasions the Magpies have failed to put away teams and they suffered two reverses at the hands of Salford and Cheltenham in April, and to focus on the Salford loss, Karl Robinson's team were far more industrious and hard-working and it's where Wimbledon might have some joy at Meadow Lane.

The Dons' fans might be chuckling to themselves at the recent rebrand of the MK Dons badge, I did too, as I have never read so much nonsensical claptrap about a badge.

Wimbledon's crucial 1-0 win against Grimsby secured their spot, and I think that's deserved for their season's efforts as defensively they have been excellent.

Johnnie Jackson also has some experience throughout his team, which is crucial in playing these matches over the two legs.

"Evenly matched. On points tallies and the two games that we've played, you can tell that these are two quite well matched teams," he said.

"We're going to have to make sure we're prepared and are going to have to be really good defensively, but there are things we can hurt them with." said Jackson on the even of the match and I think defensively they are up to cancelling out the hosts.

The outright draw back is the one for, as County's price is not one I like and the backing the draw with the 90 minutes payout at 17/102.70 ensures we can negate any last-minute hiccups.

Both games were Under 2.5 Goals during the regular season with Wimbledon's 2-0 win at Plough Lane and County's 1-0 success at Meadow Lane, and prior to last weekend against Grimsby, the Wombles' steely defence had conceded 10 fewer goals than any other side in League Two this season (35). However, they are the lowest scorers in the top seven with 55 goals and that backs up how close Saturday's game will be.

Under 2.5 Goals and BTTS angles

For all the riches of veteran David McGoldrick up front, and he is a class act, County's all too often knack of not being able to break down teams at home yielded just 31 goals all season at Meadow Lane - the worst of any of the top seven, although their home xG figure of 1.71 for the campaign was a fair one.

Wimbledon earned an xA for the season of 1.30 away compared to their miserly 0.99 at home, and with 19 conceded on the road, Jackson's team hold the honour of the best defence in the division.

It's no surprise to see the Under 2.5 Goals at 8/111.73, but I prefer the BTTS 'No' angle here at 9/101.90 given how good Wimbledon's backline is and they nullified in-form Chesterfield recently to a 0-0 in a game with few incidents and the Dons forced Paul Cook's team into counter-attacking, which suited Wimbledon more.

Matty Stevens has 17 league goals this term for the Londoners, but his form is tailed off in terms of numbers and has scored just once since mid-February.

McGoldrick (17 in 36) and Alassana Jatta have been the main men for Stuart Maynard, and Jatta is a super player but the way Wimbledon played against Maynard's team earlier in the season should see the Dons hold firm, as Maynard described it as "men against boys" that day, with Wimbledon's physical game too hot for them to handle.

Now read more football tips and previews from Betfair's team of writers here!