New Year's Day League One Tips: Go big with a 17/1 correct score play

• Alan landed a 4.7 Bet Builder on Thursday

• Correct Score 17/1 prediction for Sunday

• Alan Dudman previews the latest fixtures in League One on New Year's Day

Keep it simple again with the Greens

Plymouth Argyle v MK Dons
Sunday 1st January, kick-off 15:00

Plymouth have been the one constant source this season for the column and the 'machina verde' provided a nice double-winning whammy on Thursday with the win (tipped at 2.2) and the successful Bet Builder that landed at 4.7. The 1-0 against Wycombe ticked off yet another clean sheet for the Greens - and surprisingly their first goal from a corner all season.

It's now three shut-outs defensively in four games, and that's been such a key element of their game this season and a F22 A8 record at Home Park really ought to be too strong for an MK Dons side I gave an outside chance to at Peterborough in midweek.

The Posh were thoroughly deserving of the points as MK slipped back down to 22nd in the table. They had problems with dealing with the width of Grant McCann's team, and that's an area that Plymouth will exploit no doubt for Sunday.

Plymouth have a good record this season against teams in the bottom nine, and from eight victories in their last 11 matches, six have been in that area of the division and a price of odds-on is more than acceptable, and 1.865/6 is about where I would have them. Steve Schumacher's men also beat MK Dons 4-1 in October, and could do the league double over them for the first time since their first league season together in 2010-11.

I don't mind the win bet outright once more, but for a side that keeps clean sheets with efficiency and xG and xA numbers of 1.8 and 1.3, the Bet Builder can hopefully lead us to a bit of profit. The BTTS 'No' at Evens looks decent enough and the double pays 2.747/4, but I'd perhaps explore goalscoring options there as the 2.747/4 is a touch on the short side for a multi.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth have won three of their last four Football League games on New Year's Day, although lost their most recent one to Swindon in 2020 (2-1) - not since 1988 have the Pilgrims lost successive league games on this day.

Addicks look in big trouble at the moment

Portsmouth v Charlton Athletic
Sunday 1st January, kick-off 15:00

It seems every column has Portsmouth recently, and that's mainly been down to their suffering in front of goal. I got them wrong on Thursday as they scored twice in a game against Ipswich in a 2-2, although certain sections of the Pompey faithful were heard booing. It's still one win in 13, so the boos are justified from a small pocket and it still makes the hosts far from attractive at 1.991/1.

Charlton are in flux again, Ben Garner has gone (something I did predict in the summer) and Oxford manager Karl Robinson hit out at the London club following his team's 3-1 win against the Addicks in midweek. He said: "I heard some of the shambolic stuff after Roland left of people taking money and stuff like that, and cars left, right and centre. And it's not fair. It's a football club. It's a sport that we love, and you shouldn't be going into Charlton Athletic looking to make a few quid. You should be going into Charlton Athletic to buy into the culture and embed yourself into that."

I'd heard a few things myself about what was going on with who was proposing the tactics, and with Charlton down to 18th, I think the best they can hope for here is a draw, and they are priced to win accordingly at 4.216/5. No win since October in League One and a record of W1 D5 L5 on the road is woeful.

The back of the draw is interesting, especially with the five in the column for stalemates, and new manager Dean Holden will have to shore up the backline as they were fairly shocking against Oxford.

They've managed two eight-game winless runs into half a season, which as the South London Press pointed out post-Oxford is quite an achievement. For a side so open at the back, the Over 2.5 is logical for the Londoners but almost unthinkable with Pompey. The hosts have won just one of their last eight Football League games against Charlton (D1 L6), a 3-1 away win in February 2021, so do we want to take the 1.910/11 on offer?

I am going to go cavalier here with a couple of Correct Score plays knowing the visitors have got problems at full-back and players featuring in unfamiliar positions. The 2-1 and 3-1 are available on the Exchange at 9.617/2 and 18.535/2, and while it might seem unlikely for a Pompey game, the Over 2.5 at 1.9620/21 isn't appealing enough.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have lost two of their last three league games on New Year's Day (W1), as many as in their previous 11 such games (W3 D6).

Relegation duo to duke out a dull draw?

Morecambe v Burton Albion
Sunday 1st January, kick-off 15:00

Not one of the biggest games of the week by any means with two of the League One strugglers going head-to-head with Morecambe bottom of the table and Burton not too far ahead.

Morecambe beat Burton Albion 3-0 in this exact fixture last season, and could win successive home league games against the Brewers for the first time since April 2011, but I cannot see Sunday's low-grader being anywhere near as exciting or indeed lucrative for either.

The hosts have won just two at home and once away all season, while Burton are going through some sort of revival with back-to-back wins over Christmas against Forest Green and Lincoln. It's hardly a shock to see the hosts at 3.412/5, but I am in no rush to take the 2.35/4 on Burton, for all they are at least in form.

It's very hard to see where goals are going to come from with Morecambe - who hold a fairly pitiful xG figure at 1.01 this term, while Burton away do not fare much better with a 1.34xG number.

Dino Maamria has at least sorted out some of the Burton slapstick defending from earlier in the season, and some highlight packages wouldn't have looked out of place in a Buster Keaton or Harold Lloyd film (there's a contemporary reference for you), and he tweaked the system for the recent Lincoln with clean sheets in mind, and it worked.

I don't like either team for this, and when the thinking goes that way, I prefer to play on the Draw outright and with two sides struggling, I think they both will be happy to take a point as Morecambe cannot afford to lose any ground on their relegation rivals with just 18 points.

KEY OPTA STAT: Morecambe are yet to win on New Year's Day as a Football League side (D1 L5), the most times a side has played on the day in the Football League without registering a victory.