MK Dons v Wycombe Wanderers: Jacobson can be the main man for Wycombe Wembley progress

MK Dons v Wycombe Wanderers
Sunday 8th May, kick-off 18:30
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Ultra

Wanderers in pole position in promotion market

Game and set, but not quite match for Wycombe following Friday's first-leg League One playoff semi-final victory over MK Dons. I highlighted I thought they were a reasonable price at 2.568/5 considering their experience and know-how, and I don't think the result was ever in doubt. Sam Vokes had a goal ruled out for offside, they also hit the woodwork and goals from Vokes and Ryan Taffazolli killed the game.

I also mentioned the potential to trade a Draw price for that, and backing at 3.39/4 or 3.412/5 to trade out at around 2.01/1 is a fairly easy tactic and not rocket science, but it's always something to bear in mind when games are so tight. That's three matches in the league between them this term, they've finished 1-0, 1-0 and 2-0.

Also we're in a good position with the Promotion bet, as I tipped Wycombe at 5.59/2 as the outsider of the four, they are now 2.915/8 favourites and it's easy again to trade back your stake for a free bet. So it means we can leave alone the To Qualify market. For which Wycombe can be backed at a ridiculous 1.171/6.

MK Dons are now 10.519/2 in the Promotion market - and for a side that finished the season in third with 89 points seems staggering. Sunderland are into 2.9215/8 following Friday's 1-0 win against Sheffield Wednesday, with the Owls out to 4.216/5.

Dons favourites for the 90 minutes, but are they a bet?

The return game in Buckinghamshire sees a big swing in the prices here with the Dons at 2.111/10 and Wycombe at 3.185/40 in the Match Odds betting, and the stadium will be rocking - although it will be interesting to see if it's on the scale of Adams Park from Friday, as it was electric. Well it will be for the home fans, as MK chairman Pete Winkelman has given Wycombe a mere 2,000 tickets.

I get the home advantage angle and maximising chances etc, but it could badly backfire and the old cliche of pinning something on the dressing room wall is very apt.

MK Dons have lost three of their last five games (W2), as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 26 matches in all competitions (W15 D8 L3). They have also failed to score in two of their last four, as many as in their previous 20 games combined. That worries me backing them at hosts at 2.111/10, it's a touch short considering they were outplayed on Thursday.

This is MK Dons' fifth play-off campaign, although they are yet to reach a single play-off final, falling at the semi-final stage in 2006-07, 2008-09, 2010-11 and 2011-12. No side has ever featured in as many as five campaigns without ever reaching the final (four the most: Portsmouth and Nottingham Forest). There's a touch of the Sunderlands about MK and their post-season record, and it's a good enough reason to leave them alone.

Wanderers are unbeaten in their last 13 games in all competitions (W9 D4), their best run since going 16 without defeat between November 2016 and January 2017. The Chairboys are also looking to win four consecutive games for the first time since February 2018, and so strong is Gareth Ainsworth's team's mentality, they look overpriced to me and they even drifted on Friday from 3.185/40 to 3.55/2.

Over and Under 2.5 Goals a lot tighter than first leg

The Under 2.5 Goals price was a lot shorter on Thursday than it is for Sunday, with a split of 1.9210/11 and 2.01/1, and the latter price on the Overs appeals more.

MK Dons picked up 25 points after falling behind during the regular season - the second-best record in the EFL, so there is that in mind if Wycombe start quickly. Which they did in the semi-finals against Fleetwood two seasons ago and scored six goals over the two legs.

Liam Manning's team hit 34 goals at home, while Wycombe netted 36 on the road, which was better than Sunderland, Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham.

The clash of styles is the intriguing sub-plot. In their League One meeting at Stadium MK earlier this season, Wycombe completed just 84 passes, the second-fewest by a team in a third tier game this season, ahead only of Gillingham vs Sunderland in April (52). MK Dons, meanwhile, completed 89.5% of their passes in that game, their second-best accuracy in a League One game this season (behind 93.1% vs Gillingham in September).

But the visitors are effective, and MK are inexperienced, so it could pay to go against the market expectancy.

Vokes the man with Jacobson

Vokes is an aerial threat and his physical style is not what the MK Dons like, and his 17th of the season (should have been 18th too} means he is going to popular to play on the To Score bets and also on those Bet Builder options.

Ainsworth singled out the striker for his presence and hold-up play from Friday night afterwards by saying: "When you've got a player like Sam Vokes making that ball stick and flicking things on up front, you've got to use him to his strengths. That second goal just epitomised what he's brought to this team from signing from Stoke."

He's taken over the mantle from Akinfenwa, and offers more, especially with the delivery of Joe Jacobson, which again was exceptional in the first leg, and both look ripe for playing in the Sportsbook with combining potential double bets.

Jacobson's delivery from corners, especially those whipped in inswingers could lead to a goal, and he set-up one in the first game. With Vokes' physical presence and one of his best seasons since his Burnley days, the 11/4 price for the Anytime Scorer looks massive. If we can get around 6/1 for Jacobson for Anytime Assist, they are two to use in Bet Builder options.

As much as I love Scott Twine, he is far too short now at 13/10 to score at anytime. That's a Harry Kane sort of price!