Third tier man Alan Dudman returns for Tuesday's full set of fixtures, and his four bets for the evening include the draw at the Pirelli...
"With confidence thin on the ground for both, I suspect both managers here might be happy with a point so the Draw at 3.55 looks the sensible option."
Curle's Cobblers should be backed in DNB market
Northampton Town v Swindon Town
Tuesday 20th October, kickoff 19:45
Swindon's two wins at home has swayed the price a little here, and the 2.6213/8 looks a little risky for a victory in what essentially could come down to being a "pick em" game.
The Robins have lost twice on the road this season, with a worrying 2-0 reverse at Blackpool, but they do hold a good record historically against Northampton according to Opta; losing just one of their previous six games away from home. However, their price doesn't excite me.
I put up Northampton at reasonable odds against Peterborough, and whilst they lost 0-2, they were in the game until a late second goal on 80 minutes. They could be worth chancing again as the outsider of the two here using the Double Chance or Draw No Bet.
Cobblers' boss Keith Curle mixed it up last weekend at Plymouth, as his team defied the previously poor possession stats as one of the worst in the division to play with a bit more of the ball. Whether we'll see a complete conversion to an expansive game is unlikely, but they came away from Home Park with a bit of credit.
Curle could revert back to their previously more direct approach for this as they search for their first win, but getting around 2.206/5 on the Draw No Bet looks the play.
KEY OPTA STAT: Northampton haven't lost three consecutive home games since October 2017 when they were managed by Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink.
Stalemate on the cards at Pirelli
Burton Albion v Rochdale
Tuesday 20th October, kickoff 19:45
The obvious port of call for this game is the back of the 'Yes' in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.728/11 - a lot shorter than the 2.35/4 on offer for the 'No'.
Burton's record in that particular area has been healthy, with a win return of five from six. Their Over 2.5 Goals record isn't bad either hitting the target in four of those six.
Whatever way you salami-slice these bets, Burton haven't kept a clean sheet so far, so I am no mad rush to take the 2.186/5 offer in the outright match odds for the hosts. After all, they are still adjusting to life after Nigel Clough and they needed to stop the rot at the weekend when they earned a point against Bristol Rovers. It could be that sort of game again.
Rochdale are yet to win away from home, but they've had a really tough start with fixtures against plenty of the promotion-chasing teams such as Ipswich, Hull, Fleetwood and Portsmouth. They usually like to play a possession-based game, but that wouldn't have been easy against the big guns of the division.
With confidence thin on the ground for both, I suspect both managers here might be happy with a point so the Draw at 3.55 looks the sensible option.
KEY OPTA STAT: Burton have won eight of their previous 11 league matches against Rochdale, more than they have beaten any other opponent in the English Football League.
The Gas can continue good work away from home
Shrewsbury Town v Bristol Rovers
Tuesday 20th October, kickoff 18:00
Shrewsbury have only played one game at home in the league so far - and that was a defeat against lowly Northampton, so on that result alone they look awful value to win this Tuesday at 2.1011/10. In truth, they were a little unlucky in that loss as they enjoyed the majority of possession and a hefty shot count, but they got hit by the sucker-punch. Not for the first time in the third tier, a side lost despite having most of the ball.
Shrews' boss Sam Ricketts has also been a bit unlucky with injuries, although I am intrigued to see how striker Jason Cummings fares again this season. I backed him for Top Goalscorer honours once with Peterborough. He was lively in the Northampton game.
However, it all comes to price, and Shrewsbury are too short here.
Bristol Rovers are worth more than a cursory glance judged on two excellent away performances thus far. They earned a 1-1 at Sunderland and kept quiet the Black Cats' attack for a large part of that game, whilst they out-counter-attacked the counter-attacking masters Lincoln - winning 1-2 at Sincil Bank. Manager Ben Garner has worked a lot on the defensive shape with his back-three, and this could be the sort of game to suit them again as Shrewsbury are playing with more possession these days under Ricketts.
The visitors also have a knack of scoring, as they have found the net in every game so far bar their defeat to Ipswich and are certainly a big enough price to play on the Double Chance market as I don't see much in the game.
KEY OPTA STAT: Shrewsbury have won just one of their last nine home league matches (D3 L5), a 1-0 win over Doncaster which was their only clean sheet in this run.
Alan Dudman's League One P&L
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
*all bets to a 0.5pt stake
Back Northampton Draw No Bet @ 2.206/5 v Swindon
Back BTTS 'Yes' Burton v Rochdale @ 1.728/11
Back The Draw @ 3.55 Burton v Rochdale
Back Bristol Rovers Double Chance @ 2.56/4 v Shrewsbury