Midweek League One Tips: Back a shock for Accy to spring a south London surprise

Charlton manager Nigel Adkins
Charlton boss Nigel Adkins is under pressure to keep his job at the Valley

Alan Dudman picked out three winners from five on Saturday and he's in south London for Tuesday's round of midweek League One matches to oppose Charlton again in his five bets...

"An early goal conceded by the hosts could make that worse and an atmosphere akin to the Bolton defeat could mean bad news."

Back Accrington Double Chance @ 2.26/5

Stanley can upset struggling Addicks

Charlton Athletic v Accrington Stanley
Tuesday 19th October, kick-off 19:45

Charlton at 1.9720/21 for Tuesday night makes very little sense from a value point of view, and Accrington look good for a Double Chance selection. If the Addicks were in the top-half of the table, I still think they'd be the same price. I'll be in south east London for the game on Tuesday at the Valley in honour of my first-ever ground visited in 1982 and it will be good as some sort of scouting mission on their weaknesses.

The Addicks were poor again on Saturday and remain in the bottom three, and a 1-2 loss at Lincoln prompted one local journalist to say Charlton were the worst opposition they had seen this season. That's pretty damning. They are now 3.02/1 in the Relegation market and fans were seriously unhappy on Twitter following another loss.

With just one win at home and one away, does anyone really want to take 1.9720/21 on the home win? Especially with the fans not exactly behind Nigel Adkins at the moment. An early goal conceded by the hosts could make that worse and an atmosphere akin to the Bolton defeat could mean bad news.

Charlton's stats are equally unimpressive from Opta, as they have won just five points from their opening six home league matches this season (W1 D2 L3), their worst start at home in a season since 2012-13, when they also had five points in the Championship.

Accrington can be a bit in-and-out, but I am happy to take the chance at 3.65.

The absence of Dion Charles has been a blow to backers of Stanley since the Sunderland loss, as the striker, who has been linked with a move away from the club, was left out in September by manager John Coleman citing his lack of commitment to the club. He scored 19 in League One last term, but Coleman is standing firm and he hasn't played since.

Accy lined up with just one forward on Saturday in losing at Cheltenham and their away form has been a problem with just one win on the road and high stats for unforced errors, so I expect a low-scoring game to frustrate the hosts.

KEY OPTA STAT: Accrington have won their last two away league games against London sides, beating AFC Wimbledon and Charlton last season. They've never won three in a row in the capital since they joined the Football League in 2006-07.

Wild Thing's Wanderers overpriced for top clash of the night

Rotherham United v Wycombe Wanderers
Tuesday 19th October, kick-off 19:45

The fixture of the night is undoubtedly Rotherham against Wycombe and 'Wild Thing' Gareth Ainsworth's side look absolutely huge at 4.94/1.

While their home form has been impeccable at Adams Park with five straight wins, their away stats aren't too bad either with three victories, two draws and a pair of defeats. One of those losses came at Sunderland, but they played well at the Stadium Of Light and Ainsworth wasn't too disheartened despite the 3-1 scoreline.

Gareth Ainsworth 3 1280 .jpg

Rotherham have won three straight at the New York, with a statement 4-1 success against Portsmouth on Saturday to move them to within three points of the leaders. Pompey were quite well organised in the first 45, but they fell apart in the second-half as the Millers produced some of their best football of the season.

Wycombe beat bottom club Doncaster thanks to early goals, and they didn't have to venture forward after that. With only seven conceded on the road this term, Wanderers usually have a decent gameplan, and this could be a fairly physical game. They are effective in what they do and play the percentage areas and Sam Vokes has been an excellent signing.

The striker has scored in all three of his league games against Rotherham, scoring for Burnley in both games in 2015-16 and Stoke City in April 2019, netting three goals in total.

His price to score first on the Sportsbook looks big at 8/1.

However, I am more tempted to play on the Betbuilder with the Sportsbook on the Draw and Under 1.5 which pays out 8/1. The visitors certainly have the minerals to keep this tight and gain a result.

If they can stop and stem the crosses from out wide, the Double Chance is most certainly the way to go.

KEY OPTA STAT: After failing to win any of their first six away league against Rotherham between 1995 and 2008 (D3 L3), Wycombe have won each of their last four such visits (2010 onwards).

Latics to maintain sparkling run at the hands of Dons

Wigan Athletic v MK Dons
Tuesday 19th October, kick-off 19:45

Wigan are now second favourites in the League One winner market at 4.67/2 following a storming few results that have taken them to third with 25 points. Whether Plymouth can maintain their astonishing start to the season is the big question for ante-post backers, but the Latics have won six of their last seven.

Saturday's 0-4 victory at rivals Bolton was one of the surprises of the weekend, as indeed was the manner Wanderers were so passive in possession and the second press. Wigan broke the lines easily and imposed their game on their rivals despite the fierce tackling at times backed by 4,000 away fans.

Looking at their goalscorers certainly would send shivers down the spines of the teams around them with Will Keane and James McLean (two) on the scoresheet. Callum Lang also netted his fourth of the season and the Latics have one of the strongest front threes in the league.

Charlie Wyke is part of that tridente and the summer signing has been directly involved in six goals in his last eight games against MK Dons in all competitions (5 goals, 1 assist), netting in each of his two against them in 2021 for Sunderland, once in the EFL Trophy and once in the league.

Wyke to score first and Wigan to win can be backed at 5/1 with the Betbuilder.

MK Dons are back on the road, but the curse of the manager of the month has struck as head coach Liam Manning has seen his team lose twice away from home - including Saturday's 0-1 loss at Shrewsbury.

I was somewhat frustrated having backed the draw for the column as the Dons had more shots, more crosses and more final-third entries than their opponents, but their problem of not being clinical reared its head again as they were undone by a patient gameplan from Steve Cotterill. They knew Manning's team would dominate the ball, and maybe Manning has to find another way of winning a game?

KEY OPTA STATS: Wigan have won three of their four Football League meetings with MK Dons, losing the other. MK Dons have lost both of their away league games against Wigan, scoring just once and conceding eight goals in these games

*Click here for Ian Lamont's League Two betting previews


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Alan Dudman's P and L

2021/22: -0.42
2017/18 to 2020/21: +34.17pts

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