Midweek League One Betting: Pompey draw and MK Dons stalemate the TV picks

Wednesday won't have it easy on the coast

Portsmouth v Sheffield Wednesday
Tuesday 7th December, kick-off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

According to Opta; since a 2-0 win against Rotherham United on New Year's Day 2003, Sheffield Wednesday have won just two of their last 21 Football League away games on a Wednesday (D5 L14), losing four of their last five (D1). Luckily it's a Tuesday night game in front of the Sky cameras, although a number of teams in this division seemed to have struggled to gain three points in a midweek fixture. Wigan just cannot win on Tuesdays.

It's a super match at Fratton Park to look forward, especially as these are two big teams, great fans and the atmosphere on the coast is always one of the best.

Both had pretensions of the title at the start of the season and Wednesday have spent a fortune on wages and players, so there are no excuses for Darren Moore's side this term. But it has taken them a while to gel, and there have been some awful performances.

Pompey are similar. and earlier in the season went through a horrific run of a solitary victory in 12 games. Credit to the Portsmouth board for sticking by Danny Cowley, as at times, I felt there was a bit of pressure on him considering the expectation.

Wednesday's problem is they draw too many games - currently at four home ones and five away draws. That stat alone makes we want to punt on the draw once again at around 3.613/5.

Portsmouth have lost just one of their last seven Football League games against Sheffield Wednesday (W4 D2). That 2-1 defeat came in the most recent league encounter between the two in April 2003 at Fratton Park, so the case is fair for a home win, and they have won five on their own patch this season with four successive victories on the spin coming into this in the league.

Marcus Harness has been in fabulous form with a great run of eight goals in his last 14 appearances. Lee Gregory is supreme goal-getter for the Owls with seven in 19 this term. Harness at anytime to score on the Sportsbook is worth a look at 9/5.

KEY OPTA STAT: Portsmouth have lost just one of their last seven Football League games against Sheffield Wednesday (W4 D2). That 2-1 defeat came in the most recent league encounter between the two in April 2003 at Fratton Park.

Miller time again for Evans return

Rotherham United v Gillingham
Tuesday 7th December, kick-off 19:45

Rotherham's price of 2.3611/8 for the title at the moment suggests it's game over already. In a week when Ipswich sacked Paul Cook, their claims are strengthening week by week.

Paul Warne's side are enjoying a superlative run at the moment and their last defeat came on the 11th September. Since then, they have kept clean sheets in six League One matches, and recorded shutouts in both of their FA Cup victories to advance to third round.

It's no surprise they are the shortest I have seen a team in the third tier for a while. They are 1.364/11.

This will be a big test for Steve Evans and no doubt the fiery Scot will mention how big Rotherham's budget is compared to his. He's right of course, but we hear it often.

He said: "They have got multiple options in their squad, they are big, they are strong, they will be organised and efficient. Rotherham is a tough gig for us, a team who for me will be champions.

"They went to Ipswich who have top, top players and I watched the full re-run of that game, they won 2-0 and it could have been much more. Our task will be difficult but they are not just winning games, they are sweeping teams aside. That makes it difficult but we are looking forward to it."

The Gills will have no option other than to try and defend, but they could be pinned back for long periods. The Kent club also had a free weekend, which can work against you or for you.

The efficiency for the hosts is backed by Opta stats that state Rotherham's Chiedozie Ogbene has created more chances without registering an assist in League One this season than any other player (30). Has crossing is key to their direct play.

Gillingham have won just one of their last 11 Football League away games (D6 L4), with the solitary victory during that run also being their only clean sheet in this time, so it's hard to get away from a home win. I like them to cover the handicap again and we should look to clean sheet markets.

KEY OPTA STAT: Rotherham United have won four of their last five Football League games against Gillingham (L1).

Big two can cancel each other out

MK Dons v Plymouth Argyle
Wednesday 8th December, kick-off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

A second helping of League One Sky action comes on Wednesday, and while both are terrific games, the MK Dons and Plymouth Argyle are genuine promotion if not title contenders.

Rotherham have stormed to the top on 38 points, which is good news for us as I tipped them in my ante-post column to win the league at 15.014/1, and they are now 2.3611/8. A perfect trade out and what the markets are made for with a long-range bet.

In the same market Plymouth are now 27.026/1, so the layers have taken the view they might not last home after their storming start, and they have hit a blip recently. I also gave a favourable mention to the Dons and they are 21.020/1. They are probably more realistic as a play-off side.

But we're in a good position.

It's not a complete surprise the Greens are quite a big price at 3.39/4 here, as according to Opta, defeat would see them lose consecutive Football League games against the Dons for the first time. They arrested their form with a big FA Cup win at the weekend, but they had previously lost three on the spin against some of the big guns in Wigan, Wycombe and Charlton. And for a free-scoring side, they only netted once in those matches.

Liam Manning's Dons are only two points behind the Greens with a game in hand, and they posses a decent home record in winning six and losing just once. Their football is the most pleasing on the eye and if you are watching the game, you'll see their dominance in possession. However, against better teams, games tend to be a bit tighter as opponents are happy to sit back to try and absorb and usually play deeper.

Argyle have a fantastic front two in Ryan Hardie and Luke Jephcott - who have 19 goals between them. Ryan Broom can also weigh in from midfield and he has at times been electric and it's been good to see Danny Mayor back recently as he has been a fine player at this level for a few years.

I can see this being a bit tighter than the market suggests, and as I nearly hit the draw with MK Dons recently against Sheffield Wednesday - only to be denied by a 93rd minute winner, I am happy in backing the draw outright.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth's most recent league defeat on the road against Charlton (2-0) ended a run of seven consecutive away league games without defeat (W4 D3), their longest unbeaten run away from home in the Football League since March 2018 (8 games - W4 D4).